NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Thu Jan 07, 2016 10:15 am

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON MA 425 AM EST THU JAN 7 2016

FRIDAY
...
A TRICKY FORECAST ON FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE...WITH A SECONDARY HIGH STRENGTHENING OVER QUEBEC. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE THE NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL INCREASE NOT ONLY CLOUD COVER BUT ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE IS SPITTING OUT QPF WITH THE MID-LEVELS BEING DRY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES. THE NAM AND NMM BRING PRECIP IN DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE WHILE THE GFS/ARW/SREF BRING PRECIP IN IN THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY. THE SATURATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES ESP ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SOME LOCATIONS COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE 35F ESP WEST OF THE 95-CORRIDOR WHILE LOCATIONS ALONG THE CAPE AND SE MASS WILL REACH THE 40S. DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE PROFILE...IF THE PRECIP/DRIZZLE DOES UNFOLD THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COLD SURFACES. IN FACT LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL ESP ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. HOWEVER MAY NEED TO WATCH THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE DRIZZLE WILL MATERIALIZE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FORECAST CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS...
* SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FROM THE CONNECTICUT RIVER TO I-95 IN PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FRI NIGHT/SAT AM
* WINDSWEPT SOAKING RAIN W/NEAR RECORD HIGHS SUNDAY * PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
* OCEAN STORM MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT US LATE TUE/WED DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER FAR EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. WHILE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE FRI NIGHT INTO PART OF SATURDAY. EXPECT ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST OF THIS REGION TEMPS MAY REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE. SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO PART OF SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT ONLY TAKES A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CREATE VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALSO...THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SMALL AMOUNT OF SNOW/SLEET ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MA LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT AM. POSSIBILITY IS IF THERE IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL LIFT FOR ICE NUCLEATION ALONG WITH MARGINAL THERMAL FIELDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
WHILE JUST A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING...POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP AND RAPIDLY INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OVER SPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES WILL PROBABLY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN AT THE START ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKS. THE LOW LEVEL JET/PWATS ARE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A HEAVY WIND SWEPT RAIN ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. WHILE RIVER/STREAM FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...TYPICAL BRIEF NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR. MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN THE LOW RISK OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SHOULD BE RATHER BREEZY TO WINDY...BUT STRONG INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...MAY SEE CRITERIA APPROACHED OR REACHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...PARTICULARLY IF A FINE LINE CAN DEVELOP. IT WILL BE QUITE A MILD DAY AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SO DESPITE SUNDAY BEING A WASHOUT...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS A RESULT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDING BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN NORTHERN AMERICA AND A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN STATES. WHILE MON INTO MUCH OF TUE WILL GENERALLY BE DRY...FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN LATE TUE INTO WED. PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TRIGGER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE SHORTWAVE ENDS UP...WILL DETERMINE THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SO IN SHORT...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST AND DEVELOP SOON ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER. MOST CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW OR A MISS...BUT IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THE SYSTEM TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH A LARGER IMPACT. NEARLY A WEEK OUT...SO THAT IS ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
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Production Year: 1984

Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Mon Jan 11, 2016 8:34 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
430 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016
SYNOPSIS
...

WINTER STORM WATCH MAINE
.LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EARLY EVENING. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG ACROSS NEW BRUNSWICK MAINE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MODERATE SNOWFALL TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A WEST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...UPPER PENOBSCOT
VALLEY...AND ALL OF DOWNEAST MAINE.
* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.
* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES.
* TIMING...TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* WINDS...WEST INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS 25 TO 30.
* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES WITH ROADS SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE DRIFTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

COLDER AND BLUSTERY TODAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DELIVER PRECIPITATION STARTING AS RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDY AND VERY COLD WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH JUST THE RISK FOR A FEW BRIEF PASSING SNOW FLURRIES. IT REMAINS COLD ON THURSDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING. A STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT OUR REGION SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND. WHILE TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPES REMAIN UNCERTAIN...ODDS CURRENTLY FAVOR MORE RAIN THAN SNOW AT LEAST FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COMBINATION OF SFC OBS AND MSAS DATA SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...CLEARING ALL LAND BEFORE SUNRISE. POST FRONTAL PRES RISES WILL LEAD TO MAINTENANCE OF W-NW WINDS UNTIL MIXING TAKES OVER...SO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. GIVEN THAT TEMPS ARE...FOR THE MOST PART ABOVE FREEZING...WITH DRYING WIND HAVING CONTINUED MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WILL BE HOLDING OFF ON ANY SPS HEADLINES FOR BLACK ICE...BUT THE RISK IS NON-ZERO.

OTHERWISE TODAY...HIGH PRES BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE SW LEADING TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. SOME STREAMER CU FROM ACTIVE LAKES AND UPSLOPE FROM THE BERKSHIRES/LITCHFIELD HILLS WILL KEEP IT FROM BEING COMPLETELY SUNNY. IN SPITE OF THIS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY FROM ABOUT -10C AT 12Z...TO -15C BY LATE AFTERNOON. MIXING WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT...LIKELY REACHING CLOSER TO H75 RATHER THAN H85...BUT GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT...SUSPECT HIGHS WILL BE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY ARE AFTER SUNRISE...RANGING FROM MAINLY THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

SPEAKING OF THIS MIXING...CONDITIONS WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH W-NW WINDS. WIND MAGNITUDE AT H85 IS AROUND 35 KT AT MOST...BUT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY STRONGER ABOVE. THEREFORE...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 40+ KT ENOUGH TO WARRANT WIND ADVISORIES. GUSTS WILL LIKELY REACH MAINLY 35 KT OR SO...STILL STRONG...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO REACH HEADLINES.

WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A SLACKENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT. HOWEVER...NOT AN IDEAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS CLOUDS WILL BE BUILDING OVER FROM THE W AND SOME OF THE WINDS WILL
BE MAINTAINED. IN SPITE OF THIS THE COLD AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO STILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

DRY EARLY ALTHOUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE S. IN SPITE OF INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER...THIS RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW MID LVL TEMPS TO REACH BACK TO NEARLY -5C TO -8C. ONSHORE
FLOW OFF OF WATERS WHERE SST/S ARE AROUND 45-50F...

WE MENTION THIS BECAUSE IN SPITE OF THE MODEST MOISTURE /PWATS MAINLY NEAR NORMAL/ WEAK MID LVL LEFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL CLIPPER SHOULD ALLOW SOME PRECIP TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. COASTAL PLAIN BL LOOKS TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO START AS RAIN ALONG MUCH OF THR COAST WHILE THE INTERIOR STARTS AS LIGHT SNOW.

LIFT IS NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY S OF LONG ISLAND...WITH UPPER LVL STREAM PHASING OCCURRING TOO LATE AND TOO FAR EAST FOR STRONGEST DYNAMICS TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL SOME LIFT EVIDENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGIME
SUPPORTS MODEST SNOW RATIOS.

AS TEMPS CRASH BEHIND THE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT...COASTAL PLAIN WILL ALSO LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE ENDING DURING THE EARLY MORNING. USING MODEST RATIOS...AND BLENDED QPF BETWEEN 0.1-0.25 INCHES...WILL YIELD SNOW IN ME NW MA/ VT AND NH WHERE ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED/ AND LESS ACCUM AS ONE APPROACHES THE COASTAL PLAIN. PORTIONS OF MAINE...NW MASS...NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND VERMONT.

ONE CONCERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MODEST LLJ 30-40 KT AT H85...WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS LATE IN THE DAY ON TUE...COULD YIELD A RISK FOR BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND WESTERN MA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE BTV WRF SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER. THIS MAY IMPACT THE TUE EVENING COMMUTE FOR THOSE IN THE AREAS MENTIONED.

. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY COLD/WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW PASSING FLURRIES POSSIBLE
* COLD THURSDAY BUT MODERATING SOME BY FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
* STORM SYSTEM LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* PTYPE FOR WEEKEND SYSTEM UNCERTAIN - BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE RAIN THAN SNOW FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN

DETAILS...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -16C WILL RESULT IN A VERY COLD DAY. IN ADDITION...LOW PRESSURE BOMBING OUT OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDY CONDITIONS. GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH PERHAPS A FEW NEAR 50 MPH.
STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST MA. A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING...SO THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY IN A GIVEN LOCATION. NONETHELESS...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND REMNANT LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE... MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PASSING FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.

HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH SOME WED NIGHT ALLOWING FOR LOW TEMPS IN THE 5 TO 15 ABOVE RANGE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
WHILE IT WILL REMAIN COLD ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND MUCH LESS WIND THAN WEDNESDAY. DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL ALLOW HEIGHT FIELDS TO RISE BY FRIDAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL UP INTO THE 30S TO PERHAPS BREAKING 40 IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
PRETTY MUCH ALL THE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. TIMING/PTYPE AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ARE UNCERTAIN IN THIS TIME RANGE AS ENSEMBLE
DATA IS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE IN SOLUTIONS. WHILE A SNOWSTORM CERTAINLY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT...THERE ARE A FEW RED FLAGS SHOWING UP THAT FAVORING MORE RAIN THAN SNOW...AT LEAST FOR
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SNOW FURTHER INLAND. THE FIRST IS AN INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT LIFTS UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR
PARTICULARLY IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM. IN ADDITION...THERE IS NO COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA AS SECONDARY STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE LIKELY DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE COAST.

SO TO SUMMARIZE...
GIVEN THAT THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL 5 TO 6 DAYS OUT A LOT CAN CHANGE IN REGARDS TO TRACK AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH JUST ILLUSTRATES LATEST TRENDS AND CURRENTLY THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
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Posts: 11650
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2007 5:56 pm
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1984 Pontiac Trans Am
Car: 1984 Y84 RECARO T/A, WS6, GT4
Engine: L69
Transmission: T-5
Antispam: NO
Production Year: 1984

Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Fri Jan 15, 2016 8:26 am

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN NORTH-CENTRAL MAINE AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTHERN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NEW ENGLAND WITH A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON SATURDAY.

SYNOPSIS

.LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY BRINGING A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF MAINE...A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN TO THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS BAND SETS UP...BUT WITHIN IT SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY IN PARTS OF MAINE AND A POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF HEAVY ACCRETION OF FREEZING RAIN IN OTHER AREAS OF NEW ENGLAND.


...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF MAINE...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.
* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.
* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.
* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. ORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. LIGHT ICE ACCRETION WILL BE LIKELY AS WARMER AIR MOVES UP INTO MASS...VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...

ANY LEFTOVER FREEZING RAIN WITH LIGHT ICE ACCRETION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY MID MORNING AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CROSS THE REGION...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR LESS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ANY CHANGES.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
Admin
 
Posts: 11650
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2007 5:56 pm
Location: Westfield, Ma

1984 Pontiac Trans Am
Car: 1984 Y84 RECARO T/A, WS6, GT4
Engine: L69
Transmission: T-5
Antispam: NO
Production Year: 1984

Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:16 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON MA
440 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY BUT WINDY AND VERY COLD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM CONTINUES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH STORM THREATS INCLUDING POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 0 TO 10 BELOW ZERO EARLY THIS MORNING ***

POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY. IT WAS ALREADY WINDY VERY THIS MORNING AND WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MIDDLE TEENS...WIND CHILL VALUES WERE BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO!

WINDS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL MIXING. BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN MAY NOT BREAK 20.

EXPECT SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM REMNANT LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE...BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY. OTHER THAN A FEW FLURRIES IN THE LITCHFIELD HILLS...BERKSHIRES/W.MASS AND VERMONT IT WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY...BUT JUST VERY COLD AND WINDY.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
Admin
 
Posts: 11650
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2007 5:56 pm
Location: Westfield, Ma

1984 Pontiac Trans Am
Car: 1984 Y84 RECARO T/A, WS6, GT4
Engine: L69
Transmission: T-5
Antispam: NO
Production Year: 1984

Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:16 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
630 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY BUT COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE UP THE COAST. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MAJOR WINTER IMPACTS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST USA THIS WEEKEND. IMPACTS WOULD INCLUDE HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS...AND COASTAL FLOODING. THE LATEST INFORMATION SHOWS MOST IMPACT IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND JUST GETTING CLIPPED AS THE STORM PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY SEASONABLE AIR MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... MOSTLY A WEST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE USA WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE OF THESE DIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN USA FRIDAY AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND WAVE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. CLOSED LOW SITTING NORTH OF HUDSONS BAY CANADA WILL DIRECT A SHORTWAVES SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK FORMING A LONGER WAVE OVER THE EASTERN USA WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE JOCKEYING AROUND ON POSITIONS AND TIMING OF THE WEEKEND EAST COAST STORM. THE COLLECTIVE CONSENSUS REMAINS SIMILAR OR POSSIBLE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. ON THE LARGE SCALE A BLEND OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO BE THE BEST SOLUTION.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING IS EXPECTED TO REACH 950 MB. TEMPS AT THAT HEIGHT WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 20S...CALL IT 25-30. CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT BUT DRY AIR LINGERS NEAR THE SURFACE. SO WE EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
THE HEADLINER CONTINUES TO BE THE WEEKEND COASTAL STORM. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE COLLECTIVELY TRENDED A LITTLE SOUTH WITH BEST DYNAMICS OVER THE OCEAN TO OUR SOUTH. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT 700 MB DOES EXTEND TO THE MASS PIKE SATURDAY EVENING AND WEAKLY ACROSS NORTHERN MASS SATURDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE COAST. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING THE INITIAL COASTAL LOW OUT TO SEA...THEN DEVELOPING A TRAILING COASTAL LOW UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVING IT ALONG A SIMILAR TRACK SUNDAY MORNING.

SNOW...
ALL LOWS TRACK ROUGHLY 2 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WHICH WOULD CLIMATOLOGICALLY SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST SNOW TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OR OFFSHORE. THE UPPER LOW SWEEPS PAST SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWING WHICH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF. A TOTAL OF SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH COAST...PROBABLY JUST AN INCH OR TWO NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

WINDS...
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH/WEST OF THE CENTER WITH FORECAST WINDS AT 925-1000 MB REACHING 50 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF RI/MASS...AND 35-45 KNOTS ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THAT MAY REACH THE SURFACE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER CAPE COD/ISLANDS WITH WINDS 40-45 KNOTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD SEE 25-35 KNOTS...AND LESS WIND FARTHER INLAND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER. SHALLOW MIXING...BUT TEMPS IN THE LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 35-40. A COLD FRONT MOVES UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY. MOISTURE BUILDS UP TO AT LEAST 700 MB WITH ACCEPTABLE LIFT CENTERED AT 700 MB. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
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Antispam: NO
Production Year: 1984

Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:23 am

STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 02 FOR EASTERN U.S. MAJOR WINTER STORM
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016

...A HIGH-IMPACT MAJOR WINTER STORM IS FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN U.S. BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...

BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION STARTING FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BLIZZARD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND.

AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS EXTEND FROM ARKANSAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE INTERIOR SECTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WATCHES COVER PARTS OF THE SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS.


FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 200 AM CST...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES...WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. FROM THIS LOW...A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST...ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD IN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A VIGOROUS SQUALL LINE MOVING VERY QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. NORTH OF THE SQUALL LINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE CAROLINAS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WAS BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA. IN ADDITION...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WAS BEING REPORTED IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. MIXED PRECIPITATION WAS ALSO BEING REPORTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN TENNESSEE...AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 1100 PM CST THU JAN 21 THROUGH 300 AM CST FRI JAN 22...

...ARKANSAS...
N LITTLE ROCK ARPT 4.0
...NORTH CAROLINA...
HIGHLANDS 1.0

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL FREEZING RAIN ICE AMOUNTS IN INCHES FROM 1100 PM CST TUE JAN 21 THROUGH 300 AM CST WED JAN 22...

...KENTUCKY...
WILLIAMSBURG 0.13
...TENNESSEE...
CLARKSVILLE 5 NW 0.11

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM WHICH WILL IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF THE EAST COAST FROM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY EXCEED 2 FEET IN PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS...INCLUDING THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON D.C. METROPOLITAN AREAS. STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH HEAVY SNOW TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. IN ADDITION...SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. COASTAL FLOODING COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IN NEW YORK...NEW JERSEY...AND DELAWARE.

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AT 900 AM CST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT.


SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

*** RISK FOR A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL SAT/SAT NIGHT HAS SHIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTH COASTAL MA/RI INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS ***

MODEL TRENDS AND PREFERENCES ...

00Z NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER AND MAY BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GULF STATES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW. THE EC TRENDED FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z GFS. THE 00Z GEFS HAVE MORE MEMBERS WITH LESS QPF THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN. THE 00Z EC HAS 6 INCH SNOWFALL CONTOUR STRADDLING THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA. INTERESTINGLY THE 00Z 51 MEMBER EPS IS HEAVIER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THE OP RUN WITH 6" SNOW CONTOUR NORTHWARD TO IJD/SFZ/GHG! SO GIVEN THIS NORTHWARD TREND SEEN IN ALL THE 00Z GUID ESPECIALLY THE GFS/EC/RGEM AND 51 MEMBER EPS WILL FOLLOW AND TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. SO IN A NUTSHELL THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON A NON-NAM SOLUTION...SPECIFICALLY A BLEND OF THE 00Z EC/GFS/RGEM AND EPS.

KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND UNCERTAINTY ...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON MODELS PROPERLY SIMULATING CURRENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE GULF STATES AND IN RESPONSE HOW MUCH DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS. BY SAT
NIGHT THE MID LEVEL LOW BECOMES VERY ASYMMETRIC AND ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY FORMING A SECONDARY MID LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. THIS HELPS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT/FIREHOSE FROM THE
ATLANTIC TO WRAP CYCLONICALLY /TROWAL-COMMAHEAD/ BACK INTO RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS INCREASING THE RISK FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION THE 00Z GFS HAS
MODEST MID LEVEL FGEN ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH THIS MODEST LIFT OCCURRING IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH A MODEL BLEND QPF FROM THE EC/GFS YIELDING UP TO 0.50
INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST AND UP TO 0.75 OVER THE ISLANDS PROVIDES JUSTIFICATION FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTH COASTAL MA AND RI. STRONG CONFLUENT FLOW NORTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE A COLD/DRY AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SHARP CUTOFF IN SNOWFALL FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THUS A SLIGHT SHIFT IN STORM TRACK AS LITTLE AS 50 MILES WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND AT THIS FORECAST RANGE /36-54HRS/ THE AVG
MODEL ERROR IS ABOUT 100 MILES.

POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ...
AS MENTIONED ABOUT FOLLOWING A MODEL BLEND OF THE 00Z EC/GFS YIELDS A RISK FOR 4-7" ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF MA/RI INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. 2-4" FOR THE REMAINDER OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. A SWATH OF 1-3" IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN CT-SOUTHERN WORCESTER
HILLS INTO METRO BOSTON. NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON WILL HAVE A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW COMBINES WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH OR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES. STEADIEST SNOW FALLS FROM 18Z SAT TO ABOUT 06Z SUNDAY. AS FOR PTYPE...COLD TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INITIALLY WILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW. GFS SOUNDINGS AT NANTUCKET ALSO SUPPORT MAINLY ALL SNOW AS WELL. VISIBILITY MAY BE SEVERELY REDUCED AT TIMES AS A PERIOD OF STEADY MODERATE SNOW SAT AFTN AND NIGHT COMBINES WITH STRONG WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...YIELDING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW.

STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ...
LOW LEVEL NE JET CLIPS THE SOUTH COAST 18Z SAT THRU 06Z SUNDAY. 00Z BUFKIT GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR 50 KT AT BID/MVY AND ACK. LOWER PROBABILITY NORTHWARD ONTO CAPE COD. THUS WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS. WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS /G46- 57MPH/ LIKELY FOR THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE CAPE. THESE WIND SPEEDS ARE COVERED WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
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Transmission: T-5
Antispam: NO
Production Year: 1984

Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Sat Jan 23, 2016 1:55 am

Image
BLIZZARD WARNING
STORM WARNING
HIGH SURF WARNING
FLOOD WATCH
FLOOD WARNING
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
WINTER STORM WARNING
WINTER STORM WATCH
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
HIGH WIND WARNING
HIGH WIND ADVISORY
WIND CHILL ADVISORY
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
Admin
 
Posts: 11650
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2007 5:56 pm
Location: Westfield, Ma

1984 Pontiac Trans Am
Car: 1984 Y84 RECARO T/A, WS6, GT4
Engine: L69
Transmission: T-5
Antispam: NO
Production Year: 1984

Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Tue Jan 26, 2016 12:20 am

AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1024 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES MODERATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY THAT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AN OCEAN STORM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. AT THIS TIME...ODDS FAVOR MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...BUT A LARGER/MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT YET. AFTER A SEASONABLY COOL DAY ON SATURDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH JUST A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
Admin
 
Posts: 11650
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2007 5:56 pm
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1984 Pontiac Trans Am
Car: 1984 Y84 RECARO T/A, WS6, GT4
Engine: L69
Transmission: T-5
Antispam: NO
Production Year: 1984

Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Wed Jan 27, 2016 10:24 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
642 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE EARLY THIS MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TURNING MILD AND DRY FOR THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO A SERIES OF WET WEATHER DISTURBANCES FOR MONDAY...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER STYLE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. AS IT DOES SO... A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MOVING NORTHEAST WELL TO THE EAST OF THE MAINLAND. THE TWO LOWS WILL ATTEMPT A MERGER WELL OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH CATCHES UP TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW. THIS ALSO MEANS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING TO PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE. AT THIS TIME BASED ON LATEST MODEL FORECASTS... THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING WOULD BE OVER EASTERN MAINE OR THE MIDCOAST. THESE INVERTED TROUGH SCENARIOS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO RESOLVE ACCURATELY ESPECIALLY SEVERAL DAYS OUT. AS A RESULT... FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE ON FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW (30 TO 40 PERCENT) WOULD BE OVER THE MIDCOAST MAINE AND POINTS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST... BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST AS WELL.
KEEPING WITH SEPARATE N/S-STREAM DISTURBANCES...THERE STILL IS THE THREAT OF IMPACTS. FOCUS MAINLY IN TWO AREAS: ALONG THE W-SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE UNDERGOES FORCING BENEATH MID- LEVEL LIFT...AND...ALONG A LOCALIZED AREA OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COINCIDENT WITH A FORECAST INVERTED TROUGH. CERTAIN SOME SNOW SHOWERY WEATHER IS TO IMPACT INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...MORE DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN IS WHERE THE INVERTED TROUGH IS LIKELY TO SET UP.

WHILE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT ACROSS MAINE...STILL CONCERNED THAT A NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH WITH POSITIVE-DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ACROSS E NEW ENGLAND...THAT THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF AN INVERTED TROUGH COULD SHIFT FURTHER S AWAY FROM MAINE AND OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. NOTABLY THERE ARE DECENT LAPSE RATES ON UP TO H7 EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST OF MAIN INTO E/NE MASS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH THE CONSISTENT MODEL FORECAST TRENDS OF IMPACTS ACROSS MAINE WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE / OMEGA IS FOCUSED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE LATE-WEEK SYSTEM THAT IS MAINTAINED BY THE PREVAILING S-FLOW. FAR REMOVED FROM FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND FORCING...A WARM FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY OUTCOME. ONLY FOCUS WOULD BE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES IF ANYTHING. AN INCREASE IN SW-FLOW PER ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE...SO WHILE EXPECTED MILD IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK...
S-FLOW PREVAILS AND REMAINING MILD AHEAD OF A SWEEPING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL INLAND STORM SYSTEM. REMOVED FROM BETTER FORCING AND DYNAMICS...AND BENEATH A REGION OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE E-CONUS...ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY SUPPRESSED. EXPECT SHOWERY WEATHER DURING THE DAY WITH AMOUNTS RANGING AROUND A TENTH OR TWO. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARITIME HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS WITH A RETURN OF MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

MIDWEEK...
MUCH STRONGER DISTURBANCE EMERGES OUT OF THE S-PLAINS. DECENT SIGNAL AMONG THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF A STRONG OCCLUSION ACROSS THE C-CONUS. ROBUST RESPONSE YIELDS A SW-FOCUS OF A LOW-LEVEL-JET AND PWATS UP TO AN INCH INTO S NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE DEALING WITH A DECENT SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INITIAL ONSET IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL. STILL MANY DAYS AWAY IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
Admin
 
Posts: 11650
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2007 5:56 pm
Location: Westfield, Ma

1984 Pontiac Trans Am
Car: 1984 Y84 RECARO T/A, WS6, GT4
Engine: L69
Transmission: T-5
Antispam: NO
Production Year: 1984

Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:09 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON MA
959 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .

SYNOPSIS...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST THU NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENG LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUD. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 10 AM UPDATE...
WEAK BAND OF ECHOES BETWEEN 15-20DBZ JUST W OF PVD AND NOW THROUGH BOSTON MARKS THE COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE PRECIP SHIELD ENDS WITHIN MINUTES OF THIS. CURRENT TIMING PUSHES IT OFFSHORE BY ABOUT NOON FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS. ALSO AJDUSTED TEMPS/DWPTS AS THEY BEGIN TO DROP BEHIND THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK 850 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 12- 18Z. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STRONG CAA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFOR ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO OCCUR THIS MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...
*** WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR FAR SE MASS...SOUTH AND EASTERN RHODE ISLAND...CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD ***
OVERVIEW...

COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. VERY SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE TROUGH A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALL COLD FRONT PUSHING THE PRECIP SHIELD BACK TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. UNCERTAINTY... STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE PRECIP SHIELD FARTHER WEST WITH EACH RUN. HOWEVER SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A EXTREME CUT-OFF IN QPF KEEPING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION PRECIP FREE. ASIDE FROM QPF...THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON WHEN RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER GUIDANCE DOES HINT THAT IT WILL BE BETWEEN 06-09Z. THIS IS IN LINE WHEN 925 MB TEMPS QUICKLY COOL BELOW 0C AS WINDS BECOME MORE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. FINALLY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS THE LATEST EC AND 18Z NAM ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE SHOWING LOCATIONS ACROSS RI AND SE MASS REACHING BETWEEN 7-10 INCHES. AT THIS TIME...HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE CANAL. LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE SNOW SHIELD AS WELL AS LONG THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET. QPF... THERE APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT CAMPS IN TERMS OF QPF. THE UKMET/EC/NAM IS ONE BRINGING SIGNIFICANT QPF AND THUS SNOW INTO SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND. WHILE THE NMM AND ARW ARE ON THE OPPOSITE...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE CAPE AND IMMEDIATE PORTION OF SE MASS WITH AN EXTREME CUTOFF NORTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ALONG WITH THE EPS. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WITH AN EMPHASIS ON WPC QPF TO GET A TREND...WHICH SHOWS THAT THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD. SNOWFALL... DECIDED TO EXPAND THE THE WATCH DUE TO THE WESTWARD SHIFT WITH THE GUIDANCE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF 6 INCHES IS NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL AS WELL AS INTERIOR BRISTOL...PLYMOUTH AND WASHINGTON COUNTY RHODE ISLAND. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WHICH MAY AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE. THANKS TO STRONG OMEGA LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AS WELL AS F-GEN AS NOTED AT THE 600MB LEVEL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS YIELDING CLOSE TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...REDUCING VSBYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. LOCATIONS ACROSS NANTUCKET AND THE OUTER CAPE WILL SEE LESS SNOWFALL DUE TO LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME MELTING. AGAIN WITH THE SHARP QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHARP SNOW BUST LINE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREAS...SIMILAR TO THE STORM SEVERAL WEEKS AGO. AS THE PREV FORECASTER MENTIONED...IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD THEN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS. WHILE IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER WEST...THEN HEAVY SNOW COULD EXTEND BACK WESTWARD...WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE SHOWN.
RECOMMEND USERS TO LOOK AT THE PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL MAPS AND BEST/WORST CASE SCENARIOS WHICH COMMUNICATE THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL RANGES. IMPACTS... THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW AND IF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES DUE TO ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER LINES. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO WANE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES.

ONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BIG PICTURE...
LONGWAVE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS DIGGING TROUGH EAST AND BUILDING RIDGE WEST. THIS POINTS TO COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH WITH CONTINUED VARIATIONS BETWEEN MODELS ESPECIALLY ON POSITIONS AND EFFECTS. TWO KEY SHORTWAVES ARE EITHER OVER THE PACIFIC OR JUST MOVING ASHORE OVER THE WESTERN USA AND ITS DENSER OBSERVATION NETWORK. THEREFORE CHANGEABLE RUN-RUN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE TO BE EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE FOR THE EVOLVING WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS LOW. THE DAILIES... FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY. OBSERVED TEMPS UPSTREAM UNDER THE RIDGE SUGGEST MIN TEMPS HERE IN THE 20S. MIXING SHOULD REACH A LITTLE ABOVE 900 MB...WITH TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S. SUNDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MORE ROBUST IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS IS THE DYNAMICS. EXPECT SOME SKY COVER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PART OF SUNDAY BUT AT BEST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED MORNING SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS MAX SFC TEMPS INTO THE 40S. BUT AFTERNOON MIXING SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. WILL NUDGE MODEL FORECAST DOWN 1-2 DEGREES. MONDAY-TUESDAY... SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTS TODAY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CROSSES TO THE SOUTHEAST USA...FORMING A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY. THE LOW THEN PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NANTUCKET ON MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE UPPER LOW DIVERGE BY SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF FARTHEST WEST AND CLOSEST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. IN MOST CASES THE CLOUDS AND PCPN STAY WELL OFFSHORE. BUT THE ECMWF IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND BRINGS ENOUGH OF AN EAST FLOW TO BRING MEASURABLE PCPN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS IT IS THE OUTLIER SOLUTION WE WOULD TEND TO DISCOUNT IT. BUT WITH DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/APPALACHIANS AND BENDING OF THE FLOW MORE UP THE COAST...A MORE WESTERN TRACK IS IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND VERY-LOW-END CHANCE POPS TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE STARTS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING AND MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE WESTERN LAKES SUNDAY. IT THEN DIGS AND CARVES A DEEP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH A SOUTH-TO-NORTH FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA BY MONDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND SUNDAY/S FRONT AND WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW. UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM LEAVE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY... YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND KICKS IT NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MARITIMES. THIS SHOULD BRING DRYING AND IMPROVING SKIES BUT WITH LINGERING WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLD POOL SWINGS OVERHEAD
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
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1984 Pontiac Trans Am
Car: 1984 Y84 RECARO T/A, WS6, GT4
Engine: L69
Transmission: T-5
Antispam: NO
Production Year: 1984

Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Fri Feb 05, 2016 6:47 am

Image

STORM WARNING
HIGH SURF WARNING
FLOOD WATCH
FLOOD WARNING
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
WINTER STORM WARNING
WINTER STORM WATCH
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
HIGH WIND WARNING
HIGH WIND ADVISORY
WIND CHILL ADVISORY


SYNOPSIS
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/... 400 AM UPDATE...
*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

IT HAS BEEN A BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH. BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND. HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND NOW IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND MAINE BECAUSE OF THIS UPSTREAM TREND... ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS THROUGH INTO MAINE AS MESONET SITES ARE ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE. ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS. P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ALONG THE EASTERN PARTS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.

CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE CLOSER TO THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO 10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW. QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS... HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW ON AVERAGE..WITH SOME AREAS CLOSER 10". HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER...PROVIDENCE...AND ARCOSS A GOOD SWATH OF NORTHEASTERN MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES. IMPACTS... DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND 40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM. THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK. THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

SHORT TERM /2 PM THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... BIG PICTURE... LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUIDLING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR. MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/ THE DAILIES... TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDENCE. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED GUIDENCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB. TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE COAST.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
Admin
 
Posts: 11650
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2007 5:56 pm
Location: Westfield, Ma

1984 Pontiac Trans Am
Car: 1984 Y84 RECARO T/A, WS6, GT4
Engine: L69
Transmission: T-5
Antispam: NO
Production Year: 1984

Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Sat Feb 06, 2016 10:36 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
724 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN OCEAN STORM MAY BRING A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
650 PM UPDATE...

BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AT 23Z AS SEEN ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO NOTING SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS S VT/NW MA THAT HAVE DEVELOPED SINCE SUNSET THAT MAY CROSS INTO N CENTRAL AND NE MA THROUGH 03Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. DEWPTS A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST SO ADJUSTED TO BRING CURRENT. DO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT DEWPTS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT SW WINDS IN PLACE. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. HAVE UPDATED TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES DRY WEATHER TONIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SW PRES GRADIENT/SURFACE WINDS AND YIELDING TEMPS NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT AS DEWPTS CLIMB INTO THE 20S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY ...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING A DRY COLUMN SUPPORTING LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL MAKE TEMPS IN THE L40S FEEL EVEN MILDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT ...
1035 QUEBEC SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL THIS EVENING AND THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING INTO A SUB 980 MB LOW/GALE CENTER WELL EAST OF THE NC COAST SUN NIGHT. TYPICALLY THIS TRACK IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO YIELD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MA. HOWEVER THIS CYCLONE HAS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION/WCB/FIREHOSE IN ADDITION TO 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC. THUS SNOW COMES ONSHORE 06Z-12 MON AND WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW /OES/ COMPONENT GIVEN NE WINDS AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BIG DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL QPF WITH NAM/ARW/NMM MOST ROBUST. EC/GFS AND RGEM MORE MODEST SO FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISCUSSION...

AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH SIGNS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LATER THIS WEEK ACROSS THE EAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU...THEN WILL START TO SETTLE DOWN. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE WINTER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH IN WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL PROBLEMS WITH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IN THE OVERALL CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONG WAVE TROUGH MON-WED...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SETTLING IN WITH SOME OF THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF PRECIP CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. USED A BLEND OF MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH ENSEMBLES WHICH GAVE REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...MONDAY-TUESDAY...
MODELS SETTLING IN WITH CONTINUE NE FLOW IN PLACE. FIRST LOW PRES PASSES WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT COMBINATION OF THIS STRONG STORM /CENTRAL PRES FROM 970-978 HPA AS IT PASSES MON AFTERNOON/ AND HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING S OUT OF QUEBEC ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND...VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS...GENERALLY S OF BOSTON. GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 35-45 MPH ALONG E COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. MODELS DO KEEP PUSHING NW FRINGE OF PRECIP INTO EASTERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL AREAS...PLUS WILL LIKELY SEE COMBINATION OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW. NOTING AT LEAST CONDITIONAL CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT ON BOTH GFS AND 4 KM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LATE MON/MON NIGHT. DID HAVE ISSUES WITH QPF FORECAST...THOUGH WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT THERE. USED A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE... 12Z GFS AND A TOUCH OF THE 15Z SREF...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY WITH INITIAL SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS LOW PASSES. WITH THE COMBINATION OF INITIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG ONSHORE WINDS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION...EXPECT TO SEE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MIX WITH RAIN DURING TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER PRECIP. BASED ON THIS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BUT NOT TOTALLY END DURING TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SITS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE AND KEEPING LIGHT SNOWFALL IN PLACE. WILL LIKELY ALSO SEE A MIX WITH RAIN ALONG THE S COAST. BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS...THOUGH LOOKS TO BECOME A BIT MORE SPOTTY TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. WILL SEE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NOT A LOT OF QPF TO DEAL WITH...MORE NUISANCE SNOW BUT COULD STILL SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY WED. AS UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGHING STARTS TO FLATTEN...NOTING AN ARCTIC FRONT IN THE NW FLOW. EXPECT TO CROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU...WHICH WILL BE A DRY PASSAGE. EXPECT NW WINDS TO PICK UP ON THU ALONG AS ARCTIC AIRMASS SHIFTS SE. HIGHS THU WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...
EXPECT DRY TO VERY COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE. ANOTHER REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES FRI NIGHT...WITH EVEN COLDER AIR MOVING IN. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS HIGHS ON SATURDAY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID FEBRUARY.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
Admin
 
Posts: 11650
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2007 5:56 pm
Location: Westfield, Ma

1984 Pontiac Trans Am
Car: 1984 Y84 RECARO T/A, WS6, GT4
Engine: L69
Transmission: T-5
Antispam: NO
Production Year: 1984

Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:27 pm

AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON MA
727 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES INTO THIS EVENING. A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF LIGHTER SNOW ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING DRY BUT BITTERLY COLD WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 7 PM UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO PUSH NORTHWARD AS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 2345Z. NORTH EDGE ERODING OVER THE LAST HOUR ACROSS N CT/RI/S COASTAL MA...BUT WILL FILL IN AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT N THIS EVENING. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BACK TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NW MA TO THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AT 23Z WITH LIGHT E-NE OR CALM WINDS. READINGS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR FALL JUST A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN. NOTING NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST/DELMARVA PENINSULA AT 00Z...BUT LOOKS LIKE NOT QUITE REACHING THE GROUND YET. NOTING A FEW SITES ACROSS SE VA WITH LIGHT RAIN. LOOKS LIKE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MAY PUSH INTO S COAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR IT TO REACH THE GROUND AS TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS ARE STILL HIGH. MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...SO THINK TIMING ON CURRENT FORECAST FOR ONSET OF PRECIP LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*** BLIZZARD WARNING PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS ***
*** STRONG WINDS/HEAVY WET SNOW/POTENTIAL POWER OUTAGES SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS ***
*** HEAVY SNOW LIKELY ALL OF EASTERN MA/RI AND NORTHEAST CT ***
*** SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY SOUTH OF BOSTON ***

12Z MODELS... 12Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE ECMWF/UKMET AND GFS HAVE ALL TRENDED UPWARD IN QPF/SNOWFALL. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SAME TREND IN THE 12Z RGEM GIVES US HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE VERY ROBUST 12Z NAM WHICH IS PICKING UP ON THE OCEAN EFFECT AND LAND/SEA ENHANCEMENT OVER PLYMOUTH COUNTY INTO THE UPPER CAPE. THUS THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE HEAVILY BASED ON THE 12Z NAM. FURTHERMORE THE NAM HIGHEST SKILL IS WITHIN THE FIRST 36 HRS. THUS WE ARE IN THE NAM WHEELHOUSE. OVERVIEW ... IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY. MESOANALYSIS INDICATING PRES FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 7MB IN THE PAST 3 HRS OFF THE VA COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A NICE SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE BEING TAPPED FROM THE BAHAMAS AND ADVANCING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW TRACKS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 18Z MON WHICH TYPICALLY MEANS TOO FAR OUT TO SEA FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THIS CYCLONE IS VERY INTENSE WITH SURFACE PRES LOWERING TO ABOUT 975 MB 18Z MON AND WITH A VERY LARGE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT OVERSPREADS RI AND EASTERN MA. THUS HEAVY SNOW WILL TRACK MUCH FARTHER INLAND THAN WHAT THIS TYPICAL TRACK OFFERS. IN FACT A MODEL BLEND GIVES STORM TOTAL QPF OF UP TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN CT INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS TO NORTHEAST MA/NH BORDER. ONSET ... SNOW OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 08Z/3AM AND 11Z/6AM WITH MAIN SHIELD APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST FROM THE OCEAN. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHTER UPSLOPE SNOWS DURING THIS TIME ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WORCESTER HILLS NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NH BORDER. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY BEGIN AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BUT QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW TOWARD 12Z/7AM. SNOW INTENSITY ... HEAVIEST SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OF 1-2" WILL OCCUR 12Z-20Z. TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED DURING THIS TIME. IT WILL CONTINUE SNOWING AFTER 20Z/3PM BUT AT A MUCH LESSER INTENSITY. HEAVY SNOW MAY LINGER UNTIL 7 PM ACROSS CAPE COD AND PLYMOUTH COUNTY. SNOW GROWTH LOOKS GOOD ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA 09Z-17ZISH. THIS ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL RATES AND LOWER VSBY. IN ADDITION A SHARP COASTAL FRONT WILL SETUP VICINITY OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR ON THE WESTWARD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL ALONG AND TO THE EAST WHILE DIMINISHING SNOWFALL WEST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE CT RVR VLY. FURTHERMORE THIS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL RESULT IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS TO DEVELOP AND ENHANCE OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES FIRST ACROSS CAPE ANN AND SLIPPING SOUTH WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND CAPE COD. OVERALL THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE GREATLY IMPACTED AND ALSO THE LATE DAY COMMUTE ESPECIALLY TRAVEL ACROSS RT-3 IN PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ACROSS CAPE COD. STRONG WINDS/WET SNOW/POWER OUTAGES ... INITIALLY BLYR LAYER AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HEAVY WET SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH TREES ALREADY STRESSED ACROSS THIS REGION FROM FRIDAY/S SNOWSTORM THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK FOR DOWN TREE LIMBS AND ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES. ADDING TO THIS THREAT WILL BE VERY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 TO 60 MPH FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. EVEN A LOW RISK OF A FEW LOCATIONS HERE POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 70 MPH! HAZARDS/HEADLINES ... GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING WE WILL UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ALL OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA WITH LOW RISK OF UP TO 18" ACROSS COASTAL PLYMOUTH AND UPPER CAPE COD. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL REDUCE VSBY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES MONDAY. WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN MA TO NH BORDER...ALL OF RI AND NORTHEAST EASTERN CT FOR 5-8 INCHES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR REMAINDER OF NORTHERN CT ...WESTERN-CENTRAL MA FOR 2-5 INCHES. && .

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/... MONDAY NIGHT...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS ARE MARGINAL...LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL DRAW UPON THE LINGERING NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL HILLS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST MASS/CAPE COD WHERE THE EXPOSURE TO THE NORTHEAST FLOW IS STRONGEST. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW GETS FARTHER AWAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... OVERVIEW... LONG WAVE TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH HANGS IN ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WRAPPED IN THE UPPER FLOW MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY...WILL SEE TWO MORE SHORT WAVES ROTATING NEAR OR S OF THE REGION AS THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF NY STATE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS CONTINUE TO BE WEAK AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM SO SHOULD SEE ONLY LIGHT SNOWFALL. THE FINAL SHORT WAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS DURING THU. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK...BRINGING VERY COLD BUT DRIER CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE GENERAL UPPER PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR INTO NEXT WEEKEND...DETAILS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC MAINLY FROM LATE TUESDAY ONWARD. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN SIGNALING THE ARCTIC INTRUSION FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...SO A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE WITH THIS ALONG WITH LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDING IN LATE IN THE PERIOD. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN TRENDED TO AN ENSEMBLE BLEND LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE WIND IN PLACE...SNOW DOES NOT COMPLETELY SHUT OFF DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. NOTING SECOND SHORT WAVE IN THIS FLOW STARTING TO APPROACH S COAST LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. STILL SEE TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES...BUT NOT A VERY STRONG LOW SO WILL SEE GENERALLY STEADY -SN WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE CARRIED LOW LIKELY POPS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT ALONG S COAST AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPS ON TUE WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LAST SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WORKS INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO WEAK AND DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE. THIS WILL JUST KEEP THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IN PLACE INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PRECIP WILL FINALLY START TAPERING OFF FROM W-E DURING THU. NOTING HIGH TEMPS LOWER EACH DAY. BY THU...THEY WILL ONLY BE IN MID 20S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 30S ALONG THE SHORE. NW WINDS WILL BECOME BLUSTERY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS NW UPPER FLOW TAKES OVER DURING FRIDAY...EXPECT NEXT ARCTIC FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS. VERY DRY FLOW ALOFT...SO ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS TO MOVE THROUGH. MAY ALSO SEE SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. NW WINDS WILL KICK IN BY FRI NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. ISOLD TO SCT SHOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SATURDAY WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING ACROSS...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER CAPE. TEMPS NOSEDIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS SE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. BY SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS...UP TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. WE MAY SEE OUR FIRST BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPS WELL INLAND NEXT SUNDAY MORNING.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
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Production Year: 1984

Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:19 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TODAY. AN OCEAN STORM WILL TRACK WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT BUT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DELIVER DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPURATURES AND WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -35 BELOW ZERO LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING! FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A STORM WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN INLAND AS MUCH MILDER AIR MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 AM UPDATE...

SKC CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WITH A COLD START AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. TIMING/CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME SO ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BITTERLY COLD START TO THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCALES AND EVEN A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS IN WESTERN MA..VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL COME TO AN END LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER AND EVEN MORE INTENSE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. NOT TOO MUCH MODERATION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AS 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN BELOW -15C. THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY RECOVER INTO THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT. SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH COLD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
*** ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS ***
*** BITTERLY COLD AIR INVADES THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ***

TONIGHT...

LARGE OCEAN STORM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. AT THE SAME TIME...POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SETUP AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST OMEGA ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MICROBARS PER SECOND. WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW RESULTING IN OCEAN INDUCED CAPES BETWEEN 400 AND 500 J/KG. OVERALL THINK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS A GOOD BET FOR MOST OF THE CAPE/VINEYARD WITH A LOW RISK OF 4 INCHES. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THESE LOCATIONS...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. LIFT/FORCING PERSISTS A BIT LONGER ACROSS NANTUCKET AND WITH A PERIOD OF MODEST SNOW...FEEL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS REASONABLE AND WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM. BULK OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL BETWEEN 9 PM AND 5 AM...BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO MID MORNING SAT.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY EXTEND BACK INTO RHODE ISLAND/EASTERN
MA WITH MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE WITH UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS CAPE/NANTUCKET.

SATURDAY...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. IT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE DANGEROUSLY COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL INVADE THE REGION. MIDDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL RAPIDLY FALL BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IN FACT...BY 00Z SUNDAY 850MB TEMPS WILL BE DOWN TO RARE VALUES OF -15 TO -20 FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS AND LOWS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE -30S FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULT WILL BE EARLY SAT EVENING TEMPS ALREADY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION EXPECT EXCELLENT MIXING. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT. WE ALREADY ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR CAPE COD/NANTUCKET GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS ARCTIC AIR STREAMS IN OVER THE RELATIVELY MILD OCEAN. WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...BUT APPEARED TO MARGINAL TO ISSUE THIS FAR OUT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*** DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT ***

HIGHLIGHTS...
* BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
* SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN LIKELY TUE AND TUE NIGHT


OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MODELS CONTINUE AGREE WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DEEP AMPLIFIED FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON TO ARRIVE BY LATE SAT...WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO REGAIN CONTROL. HOWEVER...WITH SOME LINK TO A VORTEX HOVERING AROUND THE QUEEN ELIZABETH ISLANDS...THE WARMING TREND WILL NOT LAST...AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT...A GENERAL BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE WILL BE USED AS A BASELINE FOR ALL BUT THE SRN STREAM DOMINANT SYSTEM MON-TUE. A BLEND OF ENSEMBLES WILL BE USED FOR THIS FEATURE DUE TO TRACK DISCREPANCIES.

DETAILS...
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...

REINFORCING ARCTIC SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE SEVERAL CONSEQUENCES. IT WILL ALLOW THE DEEPEST OF THE COLD AIR TO SPILL ACROSS THE REGION...NEARING -30C AT H85. AT THE SAME TIME THEN STRONG MID LVL COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASED ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WIND ACROSS THE REGION...EXACERBATING AN ALREADY VERY COLD SITUATION. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ALREADY BE NEAR OR BELOW 0F IN THE INTERIOR BY EVENING AND ONLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW 0F THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE INCREASED NW FLOW AT THE SFC...WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH AT TIMES...WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -20F AND -30F WITH EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. WILL BE UPGRADING INTERIOR MA/CT AND RI TO WIND CHILL WARNINGS WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT LEAVE WATCHES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE MORE UNCERTAINTY LIE. WILL EXPAND THE WATCH TO INCLUDE CAPE COD...AS CURRENT NUMBERS SUGGEST IT COULD BE CLOSE THERE AS WELL. THE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE 0F ON SUN...SO THE COLD WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY IN SPITE OF MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

THE FINAL ISSUE OF NOTE...IS THAT IT WILL TURN MID LVL WINDS TOWARD THE N. IN SPITE OF THE FLOW REMAINING MORE NW AT THE SFC. THIS MAY ALLOW A LONG ENOUGH FETCH ACROSS ANOMALOUSLY WARM GULF OF MAINE WATERS TO YIELD A HIGHER RISK FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE COD. WITH SST-H85 DELTA-T VALUES NEARING 30C AND NORMALIZED CAPE VALUES AROUND 0.3 WILL NEED TO WATCH IF ANY BANDS SETUP...ESPECIALLY AS AN INVERTED TROF FROM THE MAINE COAST SHIFTS N. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE VERY DESTABILIZED LOW LVLS.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING IN AND CROSSING THE REGION...YIELDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME WARMING. H92 TEMPS REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO 14 F...OR AT LEAST CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. AFTER A COLD START WITH SEVERAL SITES STILL BELOW 0F /THANKS TO SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING/ HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE STARTING TO LEAN CLOSER TO AN INSIDE RUNNER LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH TIES TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE THANKS TO ITS STRONGER SRN STREAM INFLUENCE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE TREND SET FORTH BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AND LEAN THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. THIS IS BETTER NEWS AS IT DOES NOT PROMOTE GOOD COLD AIR DAMMING. THEREFORE...THERMAL PROFILES ON BUFKIT SUGGESTS AN INITIAL SNOWY START LATE MON NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO AN ALL RAIN EVENT BY TUE. 40-50 KT LLJ AND PWATS NEARLY 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUPPORT THE HIGH QPF MODELS CURRENTLY PROJECT...SO IT COULD BE THAT LIQUID TOTALS OF AN INCH OR EVEN MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT TUE NIGHT. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH GIVEN IT WILL BE A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

WED INTO FRI...
SECOND ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WED. THIS AIRMASS IS NOT NEARLY AS DEEPLY COLD AS THIS WEEKEND/S AIRMASS. H85 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -22C ON AVERAGE...SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS MEANS TEMPS WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS DANGEROUS AS THIS WEEKEND/S. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILL VALUES REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FOR SOME MAINLY WED NIGHT INTO THU...WHEN WINDS ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST. SLIGHT MODERATION EXPECTED BY FRI.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
Admin
 
Posts: 11650
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2007 5:56 pm
Location: Westfield, Ma

1984 Pontiac Trans Am
Car: 1984 Y84 RECARO T/A, WS6, GT4
Engine: L69
Transmission: T-5
Antispam: NO
Production Year: 1984

Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Fri Feb 19, 2016 8:12 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON MA
522 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016 .

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CHILLY TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...MIXING WITH SLEET AND RAIN SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING AROUND MIDDAY. MILDER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. A POTENT STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD FOR MID WEEK AND MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/..
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS... AND OCCASIONALLY PUSH INTO EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY AT 09Z. HOWEVER...THE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NOTED ON BOTH KBOX AND TBOS RADARS WEAKENED ACROSS THE MID AND OUTER CAPE AS WELL AS NANTUCKET BY AROUND 07Z. LOOKS LIKE THESE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE WITH THE STEADY N WIND OFF THE MILDER OCEAN. THEY SHOULD TEND TO DISSIPATE AND SHIFT S DURING THE MORNING AS THE WIND DIMINISHES. AS FOR TODAY...WILL BE A DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM BY MIDDAY...THEN WILL SHIFT TO S LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN LIGHT. NOTED MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LEADING EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS SEEN ACROSS W NY/W PA ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. EXPECT THESE TO PUSH IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z SAT AS THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...WHICH ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASON NORMALS.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
...
AS WEAK LOW PRES PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BRING GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE AS S WINDS PICK UP ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S EARLY TONIGHT...WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...THEN MIXED RAIN/SNOW AS PRECIP STARTS ALONG THE S COAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT ANDWITH THE S-SW WINDS IN PLACE...WILL SEE SLOW BUT STEADY TEMP RISE OVERNIGHT. SO...WILL SEE SNOW MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...EXTENDING WELL INTO MAINE. HOWEVER...PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SLEET ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD DAYBREAK. FORECASTED QPF IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES ACROSS SE MA/RI...UP TO 0.3 INCHES ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA. SO...EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN INTO RI/N CENTRAL CT...THEN ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO FAR NORTHERN CT...MAY SEE 1-2 INCHES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ABOUT 3 INCHES THAT COULD FALL ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES IN MA. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FROM S-N DURING SAT MORNING AS THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF BY MIDDAY. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST WHERE SKIES BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THEN DISSIPATE...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT REMAINS W OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS WESTERN MA MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT
* MAJOR STORM POSSIBLE MID WEEK WITH SNOW...ICE...AND/OR RAIN LIKELY DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK

OVERVIEW...

AFTER A PERIOD OF MAINLY ZONAL FLOW...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW FAR SOUTH. THIS MAKES THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A NUISANCE SNOW OR RAIN TO SNOW EVENT VERSUS AN EVENT THAT COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOW WHERE COLD ENOUGH. THE AMPLIFYING FLOW AT MID WEEK BRINGS A VERY MOIST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON PTYPE. CONSENSUS OF 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS BRINGS THE SYSTEM RIGHT ALONG OR JUST INSIDE OF THE COAST. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A LOT OF SPREAD SPATIALLY AND TIMING WISE. THE EXTENT OF PHASING BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVES IN THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM IS A FACTOR.

DETAILS... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUN LIKELY REACHING 45 TO 50 MOST LOCATIONS. SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...CLIPPER PASSES FAIRLY QUICKLY WEST TO EAST ON A TRACK SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT HOW FAR SOUTH IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES THAT MODEL/S TREND TO KEEP THE SYSTEM FAR SOUTH. OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM...ARE FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN TRENDED SOUTH AND APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF ITS ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE. FOR NOW...HELD AT 50 PERCENT POPS AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS AND GENERALLY KEPT QPF LESS THAN .25 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A FURTHER COMPLICATION IS THE THERMAL PROFILE WHICH SUPPORTS PRECIPITATION STARTING OUT AS SNOW OR CHANGING QUICKLY FROM RAIN TO SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE... THE CHANGEOVER IS DELAYED. INITIAL CUT IS A BAND OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE...PERHAPS UP TO THE ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR. LESSER AMOUNTS SHOWN ACROSS NORTHERN CT...RI AND SE MA DUE TO TIME REQUIRED FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW. SHOULD FUTURE RUNS DEPICT THE SYSTEM PASSING CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND...THEN THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL OF CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ALONG AND AT LEAST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE...ENDING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MON MORNING COMMUTE. THIS SYSTEM WARRANTS CLOSE MONITORING AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. MOST OF MON THROUGH TUE...THIS PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...MAXES GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 30S. TUE EARLY AM LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT A LITTLE MILDER ALONG SE COASTAL AREAS. TUE NIGHT INTO THU...THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A POTENT EAST COAST STORM BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE PULLED A LITTLE WESTWARD WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE TRACKS BUT CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS WITH THE ENSEMBLE RUNS FOR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS. THUS...BELIEVE WE WILL EXPERIENCE HEAVY PRECIPITATION AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN ALL LIKELIHOOD SHOULD BE TAPPED WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE MERIDIONAL FLOW. PTYPE IS ANOTHER STORY AS THIS SYSTEM COULD END UP BEING A DEEP INSIDE RUNNER...JUST HUG THE COAST...OR STILL POSSIBLY PASS NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND SET MUCH OF THE AREA UP FOR HEAVY SNOW. AGREE WITH THE PRIOR FORECAST DISCUSSION THAT PROBABLY THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN INLAND WITH A CHANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO JUST RAIN EVEN FAIRLY FAR INLAND. THERE IS SOME HINT OF COLD AIR DAMMING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS SOME RIDGING INTO SE CANADA BUT THE TROF MAY BECOME SO AMPLIFIED THAT THE WARMER AIR ALOFT OVERWHELMS THE RESIDUAL COLDER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. GIVEN THE EVENT IS STILL NEARLY 6 DAYS OUT...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ALTHOUGH THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH...THERE IS SOME RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION FOR THE WED AND/OR THU HIGH TIDES. WE SHOULD OBTAIN BETTER CLARITY ON THIS POTENTIAL RISK AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
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Production Year: 1984

Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Mon Feb 22, 2016 10:44 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON MA
630 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 .

SYNOPSIS...

A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING AN INITIAL WINTRY MIX TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY SWINGING COLD FRONTS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. AN AREA OF CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MASS INCLUDING BOSTON. THIS SHOULD THIN OUT OVERNIGHT...BUT JUST AS MORE CIRRUS MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH. CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED UP 3-4 DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS...BUT THE OVERALL TREND AND EXPECTED LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK GOOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MAY SEE SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY NEAR DAYBREAK WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION JUST OFF THE DECK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT OF THESE CLOUDS AND PROBABLY COME IN LATE ENOUGH TO IMPACT TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT LOWS TO DROP WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SNOW DEVELOPS LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING
* SNOW/SLEET CHANGES TO RAIN COASTAL PLAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLIPPERY TRAVEL LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS... TUESDAY...

WE MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE TUE MORNING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN LATER IN THE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. GIVEN WET BULB COOLING...IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOST AREAS TO START AS MAINLY SNOW EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
WILL BREAK DOWN THE MAIN ISSUES WITH THE FORECAST BELOW:
1) SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...

APPEARS THE STRONGEST LIFT/FORCING WILL CLIP OUR SOUTHERN ZONES OR REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. AT THE SAME TIME...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BE WARMING THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE...EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM A COATING TO 2 INCHES. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR LOCALIZED 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS IF STRONGER FORCING ENDS UP FURTHER NORTH INTO THE DEEPER COLD AIR LIKE THE 18Z NAM OR 12Z RGEM DEPICT. SOMETHING LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY AND TRIED TO SHOW THIS IN OUR PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GRAPHICS.

2) PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONS....
WARMING MID LEVELS AND EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN SHOULD ALLOW THE COASTAL PLAIN TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY IF NOT EARLIER. STILL WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN THOUGH ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHEAST MA AND THE HILLS OF NORTHWEST RI TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. ACROSS THE INTERIOR IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY. ALTHOUGH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST INTO THE MARITIMES...INITIAL WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LOCKED IN WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS INTERIOR MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN CT INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IF NOT INTO THE AFTERNOON IN SOME LOCALES. ICE ACCRETION OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERHAPS NEAR ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN WORCESTER HILLS.

3) WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...
WE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN LATER TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BASED ON INTER-OFFICE COLLABORATION HELD OFF ON HEADLINES ACROSS NORTHERN CT...BUT WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY NEED TO INCLUDE THOSE AREAS AS WELL. MAY EVEN HAVE TO CONSIDER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NORTHEAST MA AND NORTHWEST RI. LASTLY...WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME LOCATIONS...BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EXAMINE THAT POTENTIAL.

4) TEMPERATURES...
AS USUAL GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE LIKELY WAY TOO MILD ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE. THAT IS WHY WE ARE CONCERNED WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKS AND NORTHERN WORCESTER HILLS. ONE OTHER INTERESTING THING TO LOOK AT IS WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MA SHIFT FROM EAST BACK TO THE NORTH BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS AS INITIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR EAST. IT MAY SEND AREAS JUST NORTHWEST OF BOSTON BACK NEAR 32 DEGREES. PROBABLY NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR MAJOR ISSUES BUT SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY IN THE MESOSCALE TEMPERATURE FIELDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN USA AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST. AT SHORTER SCALES A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE WEEK. HUDSON BAY LOW HOLDS OVER EASTERN CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HEIGHT FIELD CONTOURS ARE FORECAST ABOVE AVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT- THURSDAY AND THEN COOL A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOOK FOR MILD TEMPERATURES AS THE MIDWEEK STORM MOVES THROUGH...THEN SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH FRIDAY BUT DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EFFECTS OF THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND LOW DUE TO TIMING ISSUES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE DAILIES... WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...
MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING SIGNS OF COLD AIR DRAINAGE IN NORTHWEST MASS IN THE EVENING. BUT SURFACE WINDS SWING AROUND SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO PA AND WESTERN NY. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANY REMAINING FREEZING TEMPS NORTH OF MASSACHUSETTS. LOW LEVEL SOUTH JET MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MIDNIGHT WITH 65 TO 75 KNOT WINDS AT 925 MB AND 850 MB. THIS DRAWS ANOMALOUS VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER REACHING 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. THAT MAY BE SO-SO FOR SUMMER...BUT FOR FEB 24-25 THE AVERAGE IS 0.33 AND THE 90 PCT VALUE IS 0.75 SO THE EXPECTED VALUES ARE 3 STD DEV OR HIGHER. EXPECT BASELINE RAINFALL OF 1 INCH WITH AREAS OF HIGHER VALUES...AND SOME EMBEDDED MAXIMUMS AROUND 2 TO 2.5 INCHES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IF VALUES WERE TO REACH 3 INCHES WE MIGHT BECOME CONCERNED WITH RIVER FLOODING. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END THURSDAY MORNING-MIDDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE SUPPORTING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MASS. THE STRONG SOUTH JET MOVING OVER US LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING BRINGS ANOTHER CONCERN...STRONG WIND GUSTS. WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING ENOUGH TO DIMINISH ANY LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BRING MIXING ALONG THE MOIST ADIABAT AND BRING AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE 65-75 KNOT WINDS TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. IN ADDITION THE AIRMASS STABILITY WILL DIMINISH TO ZERO OR A LITTLE BELOW ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES ABOVE ZERO. THIS WOULD MEAN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT COULD ALSO BRING THE STRONG WINDS GUSTS TO THE SURFACE.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SWINGS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. BUT EXPECT SOME CLOUDS DURING SUNDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM COMING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. WE ARE MODERATELY CONFIDENT THAT A SYSTEM MAY AFFECT US WITH A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DETAILS.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
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Location: Westfield, Ma

1984 Pontiac Trans Am
Car: 1984 Y84 RECARO T/A, WS6, GT4
Engine: L69
Transmission: T-5
Antispam: NO
Production Year: 1984

Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Wed Feb 24, 2016 10:36 pm

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 30 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST THURSDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
755 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

CTZ005>012-NYZ070>075-078>081-176>179-252345-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
755 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 30 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST THURSDAY...


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

WIND ADVISORY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND FOR THOSE FASTER RESPONDING STREAMS AND SMALL RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.


NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
Admin
 
Posts: 11650
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2007 5:56 pm
Location: Westfield, Ma

1984 Pontiac Trans Am
Car: 1984 Y84 RECARO T/A, WS6, GT4
Engine: L69
Transmission: T-5
Antispam: NO
Production Year: 1984

Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Tue Mar 01, 2016 2:58 pm

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON MA
328 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY.
* LOCATIONS...INCLUDE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE.
* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS NORTH INTO MAINE.
* ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF SLEET... ALONG WITH A TRACE TO ONE-TENTH OF ICE ACCRETION WITH HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS LITCHFIRLD HILLS CT...BERKSHIRES MASS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKWAYS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME ICY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...HOLDING BELOW-FREEZING THE LONGEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS NORTH INTO MAINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SNOW AND/OR ICE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFFECTED AREAS...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ANY SNOW OR ICE WOULD RESULT IN SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING...MOTORISTS NEED TO BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS CAN EASILY DEVELOP.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
Admin
 
Posts: 11650
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2007 5:56 pm
Location: Westfield, Ma

1984 Pontiac Trans Am
Car: 1984 Y84 RECARO T/A, WS6, GT4
Engine: L69
Transmission: T-5
Antispam: NO
Production Year: 1984

Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Thu Mar 17, 2016 7:17 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON MA
435 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 .

SYNOPSIS...

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 2 AND 10 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A POLAR FRONT FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COASTAL STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND/OR SNOW.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/... ***PATCHY DENSE FOG INTO MID MORNING***
WHILE THE EARLIER RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEPARTED...THEY HAVE LEFT BEHIND A WET GROUND AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A LOW TEMP/DEWPOINT WAS ALLOWING PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP IN SOME LOCALES. THE PATCHY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWS MUCH DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL DEVELOP AND WITH WSW WINDS AND A MILD START...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH BETWEEN 60 AND 65 BY MID AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE MARINE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/... ***SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE BETWEEN 2 AND 10 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING***
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... QUITE THE INTERESTING SETUP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO BELOW -30C WILL INDUCE IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY...BETWEEN 8 AND 9C/KM! THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE 500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AND TOTAL TOTALS NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE 60. WHILE THE ABOVE PARAMETERS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION...THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS. THE FIRST IS THAT DRY WESTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX AND DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 30S. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS RATHER WEAK. DESPITE THE ABOVE LIMITING FACTORS...GIVEN EXTREME LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME HIT AND MISS SHOWERS DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INVERTED / SOUNDINGS...HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS WHETHER OR NOT THERE ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...BUFKIT SHOWS AN EXTREMELY DEEP AND RARE MIXING WELL UP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE...A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO OF 60 MPH EXISTS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED HIGHLIGHTING THESE CONCERNS. LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE EVENING. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT OTHER THAN A FEW PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPDATED 415 PM HIGHLIGHTS...
* POLAR FRONT FRI BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/SQUALLS
* EXTENDED PERIOD OF CHILLY TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT THRU TUESDAY
* DRY WEATHER FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
* SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE LATE SUN INTO MON WITH POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND/OR SNOW OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...


A COMPLEX PATTERN WITH NEAR NEUTRAL TELECONNECTIONS DEFINES THE MEDIUM RANGE OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST. HOWEVER...ONE COMPONENT REMAINS PERSISTENT...THAT A CONDUIT FOR COLD AIR DIRECT FROM HUDSON BAY WILL SPILL INTO THE NE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WX...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/SQUALLS POSSIBLE FOR FRI...COOL TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND THE COASTAL STORM WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THEREAFTER...A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS...FORCING THE COLD AIR BACK TO THE N. REGARDING THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM. STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO LEAN DIRECTLY ON ANY ONE TRACK. IN FACT 17.00Z CMC/GFS ARE PERFECT EXAMPLES OF WHAT COULD HAPPEN IF NO PHASING OCCUR...A FAST MOVING...AND NOT VERY DEEP RESULTANT LOW PRES. THE ECMWF/UKMET AND SOME GEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLES ALLOW FOR PHASING OF A TRAILING ARCTIC WAVE...NEGATIVELY TILTING THE TROUGH...ENHANCING CYCLOGENESIS AND PULLING THE SYSTEM FURTHER NW. COMPLICATING THE MATTER IS A MEANDERING BLOCK ACROSS SRN CANADA/NRN PLAINS THAT COULD SPEED UP/SLOW DOWN THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC. UNTIL THESE FEATURES ARE BETTER RESOLVED...A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH MORE WEIGHT ON ENSEMBLES IS FAVORED WITH THIS UPDATE. DETAILS... FRI AND FRI NIGHT... COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRI. THIS WITHIN A REGIME OF H5 TEMPS BELOW -30C. CONVERGENCE OF MODEST MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME SHRA DEVELOPMENT. INVERTED-V PROFILE APPARENT ON BUFKIT WITH MIXING NOT QUITE AS DEEP AS THU...BUT ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN 30-40 KT MOMENTUM. THEREFORE..ANOTHER RISK FOR SQUALLS WITH SMALL HAIL/WIND POSSIBLE. IN FACT...IF DYNAMIC COOLING IS STRONG ENOUGH CHANGE TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN SPITE OF SFC TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG PRES RISES COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH 30-40 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE. AMBIENT TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S...SO EXPECT WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS. GIVEN THE RISK OF MIXING TO NEAR 40 KT...A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEE TO BE CONSIDERED. SAT AND SUN... HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND WITH TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN LAST. H92 TEMPS SETTLE TO AROUND -4C SAT... AND -6C ON SUN. THEREFORE...IN SPITE OF THE EXPECTED SUNSHINE...HIGHS ON THE THE LOW-MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S ARE EXPECTED. WHILE THIS IS ACTUALLY STILL CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...IT WILL FEEL COLD IN COMPARISON TO LAST WEEKEND ESPECIALLY. SUN NIGHT INTO MON... POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. WHILE WE MIGHT ALL LIKE TO SAY...HERE BE ANSWERS...IT/S STILL JUST TOO SOON TO NAIL DOWN EXACT SENSIBLE WX DETAILS AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS YET TO BE FULLY SAMPLED BY ONSHORE REMOTE SENSING NETWORK...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE BLOCK ACROSS THE NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THE FASTER CMC/GFS SOLUTION WOULD PRODUCE LESS OVERALL QPF...EVEN THOUGH THEIR CURRENT PATH IS NEAR OR JUST INSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...MAINLY BECAUSE THE TROWAL/F-GEN DYNAMICS ARE NOT AS STRONG. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF/UKMET ARE STRONGER...BUT POTENTIALLY TOO CLOSE..FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...AND UNTIL THE PHASING/LACK THEREOF CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED...HERE ARE THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. SNOW/RAINFALL... A CLOSER PASS MEANS INCREASED RISK FOR OVERALL PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER IT WOULD INTRODUCE A HIGHER RISK FOR RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA...PARTICULARLY THE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOULD THE LOW PASS INLAND...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK FOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING. A PASS OUT TO SEA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BENCHMARK SUGGESTS HIGHER RISK FOR SNOWFALL EVERYWHERE AS THE H92 0C LINE WOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AS WELL. IN ANY SOLUTION...THE SNOWFALL COULD BE RELATIVELY LOW RATIO...HEAVY AND WET ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES...AND WOULD BE PLOWABLE IN TOTAL AMOUNTS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNT S FURTHER INLAND THANKS TO A BENTBACK WARM FRONT. AT THIS TIME...QPF TOTALS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.5 INCHES TO AS MUCH AS 1.25. WINDS... TYPICAL NOR-EASTER WIND DIRECTION...BUT THE WIND RADII AND STRENGTH WILL ALSO DEPEND ON TRACK. THERE IS THE RISK FOR STRONG WINDS AS CURRENT PROJECTS SUGGEST H92 WINDS OF 50 KT AVAILABLE. WHILE THIS IS MOST LIKELY FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS...COINCIDENT WITH THE HIGHEST RISK FOR WET SNOW...AND SHIFT FURTHER INLAND MEANS THE REST OF MA/RI/CT COULD SEE STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH THE WET SNOW. COASTAL FLOODING... SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON EVENING HIGH TIDES ON THE EAST COAST /BOSTON/ ARE AROUND 10 FT. NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. THEREFORE...TO PRODUCE SURGE/WAVE ACTION HIGH ENOUGH TO PROMOTE A RISK FOR COASTAL FLOODING WOULD REQUIRE A PASSAGE CURRENTLY PROJECTED BY THE ECMWF/UKMET. IN ESSENCE A STRONGER/CLOSER PASS...AND EVEN THAT MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT GIVEN THE 2.0+ FT SURGE IT WOULD REQUIRE TO REACH MINOR LEVELS. THE GFS/CMC WOULD BE TOO PROGRESSIVE. THEREFORE..IT IS A RELATIVELY LOW RISK AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING ONCE THE TRACK IS BETTER AGREED UPON. MON NIGHT INTO TUE... STRONG NW FLOW FOLLOWS THE LOW PRES PASSAGE REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK. A BRIEF COOL DOWN WITH COLD WINDCHILLS FOLLOWS. WED AND THU... ZONAL FLOW WITH SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES SUGGEST THE RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. HOWEVER...SLIGHT TRAJECTORY SHIFT LOOKS TO ALLOW MILD TEMPS TO ONCE AGAIN RETURN.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
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1984 Pontiac Trans Am
Car: 1984 Y84 RECARO T/A, WS6, GT4
Engine: L69
Transmission: T-5
Antispam: NO
Production Year: 1984

Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Sun Mar 20, 2016 2:43 pm

Image

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1026 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY WET SNOW TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES AS TO HOW HEAVY IT WILL BE IN CENTRAL MA AND FARTHER WEST INTO NORTHERN
CT...AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL MIX IN OVER THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. PERIODS OF WET WEATHER WILL THEN MOVE IN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT MILDER TEMPERATURES TO MOVE IN LATE THIS WEEK AS WELL.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...1015 AM UPDATE.
LATE THIS MORNING CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WERE COVERING MUCH OF SOUTHERN CT...SOUTHERN RI...AND THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. NE WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE
S COAST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO FALMOUTH AND NANTUCKET. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS EASTERN MA WITH EASTERLY WINDS BLOWING OFF THE COLD OCEAN. FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...HIGHS IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.

WEAK RADAR ECHOES OVER SE NY AND CT WERE ALOFT...WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. MESOSCALE MODELS DO NOT BRING IN ANY PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW PRESSURE...1009 MB...WAS OFF THE NC COAST...IN
LINE WILL ALL MODELS. IT WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGS DOWN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TODAY.

06Z MODELS...AND THE NEW 12Z NAM...CONTINUE TO SHOW A WIDESPREAD SWATH OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA...FROM BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE TO THE CAPE COD CANAL...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
TOWARD THE CANAL. WE HAVE UPPED THE SNOWFALL FORECAST ON THIS PACKAGE TO INCLUDE CLOSE TO 10 INCHES FOR THE AREA FROM FALL RIVER TO PLYMOUTH...JUST NORTH OF THE CAPE COD CANAL. OTHERWISE...WILL
NOT MAKE CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS UNTIL ALL GUIDANCE IS EVALUATED THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY WET SNOW TONIGHT/MON AM ACROSS RI/SE MA
* WET SNOW MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES/DOWNED TREE LIMBS
* UNCERTAINTY ON NORTHWEST EXTENT OF HEAVY SNOW BACK INTO INTERIOR
* UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN/SNOW LINE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS

DETAILS...

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY. SUBTLE CHANGES IN SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND ITS IMPACT ON DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT LOCATION AND
INTENSITY OF ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WILL BREAK THINGS DOWN A BIT MORE BELOW BY LOCATION AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

1) RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA:
HAVE UPGRADED RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AS ALL GUIDANCE HAS PRETTY MUCH CONVERGED ON A SIGNIFICANT WET SNOW EVENT. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL NOT INTENSIFY
AS QUICK OR CLOSE TO THE COAST AS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED A FEW DAYS AGO...IT WILL STILL RESULT IN A PERIOD VERY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BETWEEN 6 AND 10 PM
THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY. THE NAM/GFS INDICATE A VERY STRONG AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...COUPLED WITH A -EPV SIGNATURE AND OVER 30 MICROBARS PER SECOND OF LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THIS MAY RESULT IN 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY AFTERNOON. CURRENT SNOWFALL ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LOW RISK FOR UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THAT THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREE LIMBS ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS:
WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN POSTED FOR CAPE COD/MARTHAS VINEYARD AND ONE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BLOCK ISLAND. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NANTUCKET...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH JUST A SMALL SLUSH ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

THE BIGGER ISSUE IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD AS THIS AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONE FOR BANDING/HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE CONCERN HERE IS THAT THEY WILL ALSO BE FLIRTING WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BULK OF THE STORM MAY END UP IN THE FORM OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER CAPE AND PROBABLY INTO MARTHAS
VINEYARD...BUT ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THESE LOCALES CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME. IF PTYPE STAYS ALL SNOW...THIS RISK FOR SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES/DOWNED TREE LIMBS WILL INCREASE. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF RAIN WHICH SHOULD CUT DOWN ON SNOW ACCUMS.

3) EASTERN CT AS WELL AS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MA:
WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THIS REGION TONIGHT/MONDAY AM. THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...SINCE IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTHWEST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHARP CUTOFF IN HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS IN THIS REGION...SO THAT DEFINITELY IS CONCERNING. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND PARTICULARLY
THE NAM SHOW A VERY INTENSE MID LEVEL BANDING SIGNATURE SETTING UP ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS CAN OFTEN BE A RED FLAG THAT MODEL QPF IS TOO LOW AND ALSO RESULT DECENT SNOW RATIOS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
AND SINCE THE SNOW DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL TONIGHT...FELT A WINTER STORM WATCH WAS THE WAY TO GO AND WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE IT FROM THERE.

4) WESTERN MA AND INTO HARTFORD COUNTY:
THIS AREA ALSO LOOKS TO BE QUITE A CHALLENGING FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME OF OUR GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DECENT MID LEVEL BANDING COULD FIND ITS WAY INTO THE DISTANT INTERIOR. THE PROBLEM IS THOUGH THAT THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE GRADIENT. FOR NOW WE WENT WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THIS REGION AND DID ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARTFORD COUNTY. WE PROBABLY WILL HAVE TO EXPAND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR AREAS NEAR SPRINGFIELD...ORANGE AND FITCHBURG. HOWEVER...GIVEN SNOW PROBABLY DOES NOT MOVE INTO THIS REGION UNTIL BETWEEN 9 AND MIDNIGHT HANDLED IT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOW.

5) STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL:
GIVEN THIS STORM WILL NOT BE INTENSIFYING AS QUICK AS SOME DATA SUGGESTED A FEW DAYS AGO...NO WIND HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY STILL GUST BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR THE UPPER CAPE AND PERHAPS SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY...WHERE STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE POWER OUTAGE POTENTIAL WITH THE HEAVY WET SNOW.

6) BIGGEST IMPACTS: MONDAY AM RUSH HOUR AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES
GREATEST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE RISK FOR SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES/DOWNED TREE LIMBS ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH THE HEAVY WET SNOW. ALSO...IT NOW APPEARS THAT IT MAY STILL BE
SNOWING QUITE HEAVILY DURING THE START OF THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR WHICH COULD BE QUITE PROBLEMATIC. SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK RECOVERY INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. VERY TYPICAL OF A SPRING STORM AND THE EVENING RUSH HOUR SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF WET WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH THE MILDEST TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

ONCE THE WINTER STORM MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES...THE UPPER LEVEL STEERING PATTERN FLATTENS OUT WITH A GENERAL W-NW H5 FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM. WHILE IT WILL BE COMPARATIVELY QUIET...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE NORTHEAST WILL BE CLOSE TO THE STORM
TRACK. WEAK...FAST MOVING LOW PRES AREAS WILL RIDE ALONG IN THIS FAST FLOW...BUT TIMING AND TRACK OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS WILL BE IN QUESTION INTO LATE THIS WEEK. BEYOND THIS...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
TRYING TO DIG LONG WAVE TROUGHING DOWNSLOPE OF THE ROCKIES THAT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WHILE RIDGING UPSTREAM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS LOOKS TO BRING A GENERAL WARMING TREND ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WITH OVERALL 00Z MODELS WITHIN THE GENERAL ENVELOPE OF THE GEFS AND ECENS...WILL BE USING AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DETAILS...
MONDAY NIGHT...

LOW PRES EXITING EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL DEEPEN INTO A STORM CENTER OVER THE MARITIMES WITH PRESSURE DOWN TO SUB 980 HPA. THIS WILL KEEP A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS EARLY MON NIGHT...SO W-NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25-30 KT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AS WELL AS SOME OF THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH EXCEPT FOR
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT.

SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM NY STATE. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT AROUND 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES QUICKLY CROSSES THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE REGION STARTING TUE NIGHT. FIRST...LOW PRES WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY WED MORNING...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS...THEN STALL CLOSE TO OUR JUST S OF THE REGION DURING WED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUE NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES...THEN WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE REGION DURING WED INTO WED NIGHT.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE ROUTE 2 AREA WITH SCT SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF WINTRY MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS N CENTRAL
AND NW MA IF TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.

LOW PRES DEVELOPS ACROSS AROUND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THU MORNING...WHICH WILL START TO STALLED FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DECREASES FROM S-N...BUT WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND N OF THE MASS PIKE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY ON TUE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S...THEN WILL MODERATE A BIT TO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL THEN COOL DOWN AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS N MA ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE GREAT LAKES THU NIGHT...THEN MOVE E ACROSS THE REGION DURING FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME QUESTION AS HOW QUICKLY THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.
LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER MODELS WHICH WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLES. SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...
THE FRONT CLEARS THE COAST BY DAYBREAK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E. AT THIS POINT...WILL CARRY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. STILL SOME QUESTION AMONGST THE ENSEMBLES ON THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC OR SE U.S. COAST AND ITS TIMING.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
Admin
 
Posts: 11650
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2007 5:56 pm
Location: Westfield, Ma

1984 Pontiac Trans Am
Car: 1984 Y84 RECARO T/A, WS6, GT4
Engine: L69
Transmission: T-5
Antispam: NO
Production Year: 1984

Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Thu Mar 31, 2016 7:30 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON MA
430 AM EDT
THU MAR 31 2016 .

SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CIRCULATE A WARM AIRMASS INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND FRI ON STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRI. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE FRONT SAT AND BRINGS THE RISK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. A CLIPPER LOW AND ITS ATTENDING ARCTIC FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SQUALLS. BEHIND THE FRONT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION ON BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER OR NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE MON INTO TUE BRINGING THE RISK OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO THE AREA.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HEADLINES...

- WIND ADVISORY FOR E/SE MASSACHUSETTS AND ALL OF RHODE ISLAND
- SW WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...ISOLATED 60 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE GROWING CONFIDENCE OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.
WIND ADVISORY A SLAM DUNK AND WE COULD COME CLOSE TO HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA OVER E/SE MASS AND RI ESPECIALLY BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES...THROWING BLUE HILL INTO THE MIX AS WELL. 45-55 MPH GUSTS WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLATED GUST OF 60 MPH. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT PROFILES BULLISH ON MIXING DOWN WINDS FROM H925 WHERE FORECAST CONSENSUS HAS 60-70 MPH SW WINDS.... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING ANTICIPATED WARMTH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH READINGS UP TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK IN AND AROUND THE MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEY. IMPACTS OF DOWNED LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES ACCORDINGLY WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY. OTHERWISE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE LOWERING AND THICKENING. DRY FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH HEAVIER POCKETS. INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL FORCING PER ISENTROPIC OVER-RUNNING OF 60-70 MPH SW FLOW OF SUB-TROPICAL HIGH THETA-E AIR AND SUPPORT PER LEAD VORTEX ENERGY ALOFT. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONSIDERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE PROFILE. LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH. WINDS IN QUESTION. MIXING SHOULD BECOME LIMITED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. YET PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STOUT. CONFIDENT WILL SEE GUSTS OVERALL UP TO 30 MPH. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN / THUNDERSTORMS OF POTENTIALLY DRAGGING DOWN FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. SUCH THREATS WOULD NEED TO BE HANDLED VIA SHORT-FUSED HEADLINES OVER WIND ADVISORY THINKING ISOLATED TO SPORADIC NATURE. REMAINING MILD. SOUPY. HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR PUSHING ONSHORE. WINDS MAY LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BUT NEVERTHELESS LIKELY GOING TO BE MISTY. LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S...SOME LOCALES DOWN TO THE LOW 60S.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MAJORITY OF THE WET WEATHER AND CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO THE AFTERNOON PARENT WITH CONTINUED DEEP LAYER FORCING OF SUB-TROPICAL HIGH THETA-E AIR WITH PWATS TO 1.5 INCHES. COULD BE LOOKING AT AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAIN IN SPOTS. BY EVENING STRONGEST DYNAMICS ARE FAR REMOVED N. WITHIN THE ACCOMPANYING BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN DRIER AIR WORKS IN AS BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL ENERGY BECOMES STRETCHED. SHOULD SEE WET WEATHER AND SOUPY MISTY CONDITIONS CONCLUDE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE USHERANCE OF W WINDS AND DRIER AIR BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT BEGIN TO LIFT BACK N IN RESPONSE TO A FOLLOW-UP VORTEX THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH PATTERN INVOKING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SE CONUS LIFTING IT NORTHEASTWARD. AS FOR WINDS...CONTINUED STOUT SW WINDS 60-70 MPH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SE NEW ENGLAND. WITH DAYTIME HEATING WARMING TEMPERATURES TO HIGHS INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN IN THE MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEY THERE IS AGAIN THAT POTENTIAL FOR MIXING DOWN WINDS TO THE SURFACE ASIDE FROM PRECIPITATION DRAG WITH POTENTIAL POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN / THUNDERSTORMS. BUFKIT PROFILE 2M TEMPERATURES COULD POSSIBLY BE TOO COOL THEREBY LIMITING TRUE MIXING. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT STRONGER GUSTS OF AROUND 40 MPH COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE E INTERIOR OF S NEW ENGLAND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT HEADLINES. SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WITH LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* ACTIVE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MORE OF A WINTER TYPE PATTERN
* TEMPERATURES - MILD SAT FOLLOWED BY AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SUNDAY THRU WED OF NEXT WEEK
* PRECIPITATION - CHANCE OF SHOWERS SAT...SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SQUALLS SAT NGT WITH RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER...THEN DRY SUN FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF SNOW/COLD RAIN LATER MON INTO TUE

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION ...

EVOLVING HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REGIME RESULTS IN ACTIVE WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD WITH A MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN THAN SPRING. BUILDING WESTERN CANADA RIDGE INTO ALASKA PROMOTES HIGH AMPLTIUDE MEAN TROUGH DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN A STORM TRACK OVER OR NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HENCE...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE RISK OF MULTIPLE PRECIP EVENTS SAT THRU TUE. ENSEMBLES /EPS AND GEFS/ AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BOTH IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...SO NO STRONG MODEL PREFERENCES FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. DETAILS...

SATURDAY ...
MODELS TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION FRI TO STALL AS MID/UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND FLOW ALOFT PARALLELS EAST COAST. THIS DELAYS FRONTAL DEPARTURE OFFSHORE AS FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SAT. THUS A PERIOD OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST PROBS OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST MA ESPECIALLY SOUTH COAST WITH LOWER THREAT WELL INLAND. SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS 50-55.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUN MORNING ...
INTERESTING WEATHER POSSIBLE AS VIGOROUS POLAR JET WITH POTENTIAL TROP FOLD IN RESPONSE TO ARCTIC SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY. THIS RESULTS IN CLIPPER LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING ALONG THE POLAR FRONT AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM! SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE COLUMN FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED IN THE FORM OF ROBUST RAIN/SNOW SQUALLS ALONG WITH LOW PROB OF THUNDER! COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE POLAR FRONT. WHILE THIS TROP FOLD EVENT WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS INTENSE AS THE 12/9/2005 CASE...IT BEARS WATCHING FOR AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS.

SUNDAY
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS CRASHING TO -12C TO -16C ACROSS THE REGION SUN AFTN AND NIGHT...ABOUT -2 SD COLDER THAN CLIMO. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S SUN AFTN AND SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS SUN NGT...BRRR!

MON/TUE ...
DESPITE TIME RANGE HERE VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUID FOR A FRONTAL WAVE TO TRACK ALONG OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SNOW INLAND WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. LOTS OF PREDICTABILITY ISSUES WITH SMALL FRONTAL WAVES AT THIS TIME RANGE HAVE TO KEEP THE FORECAST AND DISCUSSION PROBABALISTIC VS. DETERMINISTIC. EC AND EPS FARTHER SOUTH THAN REMAINDER OF GUID. IN ADDITION THIS TIME OF YEAR POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HINGE ON PRECIP INTENSITY AND EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE MESOSCALE BANDS SETUP. TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO MENTION ANY DETAILS. ALTHOUGH STAY TUNED.

WED ...
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUID SUGGEST MEAN TROUGH OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NEW ENG. THUS TRENDS SUGGEST DRY BUT COOL WEATHER.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
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Car: 1984 Y84 RECARO T/A, WS6, GT4
Engine: L69
Transmission: T-5
Antispam: NO
Production Year: 1984

Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Thu Apr 21, 2016 6:23 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON MA
453 AM EDT THU APR 21 2016

SYNOPSIS
...
AFTER A CHILLY START VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...PLENTY OF APRIL SUNSHINE WILL SEND AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO PART OF SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT LOOKS TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL DAY ON TAP WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS***

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WARMER MID LEVEL AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SO DESPITE A RATHER CHILLY START PARTICULARLY IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE OFF TO THE RACES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE 50S AND LOWER 60S WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE. UNLIKE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY SEA BREEZES THAT TRY TO DEVELOP SHORT-LIVED ON THE EASTERN MA COAST. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT THE BOSTON METRO AREA TO ALSO REACH INTO THE 70S.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
***SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FRIDAY TO THE NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR****

TONIGHT...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. WHILE GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...MAY SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LOW TEMPS WILL ALSO BE MUCH MILDER THAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS READINGS ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
OTHER THAN A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH BULK OF FORCING STILL TO OUR WEST. DESPITE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE IN THE 50S...SO NOT NEARLY AS DRY AS IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

THINGS BECOME BIT MORE INTERESTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...NORTHWEST OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS WESTERN MA/WESTERN-CENTRAL CT. COLD POOL ALOFT WITH WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -16C COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE. AT THE SAME TIME...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT. CONSIDERING ONLY 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE BUT MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ORGANIZATION. SO WHILE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALIZED WIND/HAIL THREATS ARE A POSSIBILITY. LATEST SPC SREF IS INDICATING SOME LOW PROBABILITIES ACROSS OUR INTERIOR ZONES...SO CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH. MAIN TIME OF CONCERN IS BETWEEN 2 AND 10 PM ON FRIDAY. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE...BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS A POSSIBILITY.

SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

LASTLY...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR WORKS OVER THE COOLER OCEAN.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

00Z MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FEATURE REX BLOCKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO E OF GREENLAND THIS WEEKEND...WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOW PRES CENTERS ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC TO BAFFIN ISLAND AS WELL AS S OF ALASKA. HOWEVER...FURTHER S ACROSS THE LOWER 48...UPPER PATTERN RELAXES WITH MORE PROGRESSION OF SURFACE SYSTEMS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. MODELS SHOWING SOME SPREAD IN THEIR TIMING AND TRACK OF SURFACE SYSTEMS AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOW ITS PROGRESSION AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AS 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING WIDE VARIANCE IN HANDLING TRACK AND TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY THERE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AS IT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DROPPING TEMPS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN THE SUSCEPTIBLE LOW LYING AREAS OF INTERIOR SE MA. MAY SEE TEMPS FALL TO THE UPPER 20S IN SOME FAR INTERIOR LOCALES.

ON SUNDAY...
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WILL START TO SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE READINGS WILL RUN AROUND 50...RANGING TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. 00Z MODELS HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE TIMING OF ANY WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AS LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN. AT THIS POINT... LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SHOT FOR STEADIER RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH W-E UPPER LEVEL WINDS...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT ANY RAIN WILL HELP WITH THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL MANAGE TO REACH THE 50S TO AROUND 60... MILDEST ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. AS COOLER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA...WHICH MIGHT MEAN A LITTLE MIX WITH WET SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THERE...RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT MIGHT MEAN COOLER TEMPS MON NIGHT AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE SNOW. READINGS WILL BE COOL ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPS ONLY RECOVERING TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK OF THE FRONT AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL DETERMINE WHEN THE PRECIP ENDS. CURRENT THINKING LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS...AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF MAY BE OVERDONE WITH AREA OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE. SHOULD SEE CLEARING /AT THIS POINT ANYWAY/ WITH TEMPS LOOKING TO FALL BACK UP TO 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
Admin
 
Posts: 11650
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2007 5:56 pm
Location: Westfield, Ma

1984 Pontiac Trans Am
Car: 1984 Y84 RECARO T/A, WS6, GT4
Engine: L69
Transmission: T-5
Antispam: NO
Production Year: 1984

Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Tue Apr 26, 2016 2:23 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
951 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS..
.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUE PROVIDING A WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TO THE REGION ALONG WITH A CHILLY NORTHEAST WIND AND MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL QUICKLY PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
950 PM UPDATE...THERE CONTINUE TO BE A FEW LIGHT ECHOES MOVING ACROSS THE RADAR TONIGHT...BUT HAVE YET TO SEE ANY RAIN AT THE GROUND. ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTENING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE LOWEST DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS RI AND SE MA. AREAS TO THE NORTH ARE STILL IN THE 20 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE. OVERCAST SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CEILING HEIGHTS LOWERING STEADILY. SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF HIGHER POPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...
MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP INCREASE THE MOISTURE RESULTING IN SHOWERY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE BEST CHANCE WILL BE WHERE THE MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY SET-UP AND POINTS NORTHWARD. AS OF THIS FORECAST APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE PIKE...SO LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MASS HAVE THE BETTER SHOT OF SEEING SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. BETWEEN 6-9Z...CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE REST OF THE REGION AS BOUNDARY STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL SLOWLY DROP AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...TOMORROW...
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE FLOW. STILL SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS FRONT WILL STALL...BUT AS OF THIS FORECAST ANTICIPATE THE REGION TO BE MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. 925 MB TEMPS WILL BE BELOW 0C NORTH OF THE PIKE AND WITH NORTHEAST FLOW COMING OFF THE WATER...EXPECT A VERY CHILLY DAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE 40F.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AND WILL BEGIN TO LET UP BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. DURING THE DAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WHICH SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS...WHICH WILL BE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. CANT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST.

INTERESTING THERMAL PROFILES HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. DESPITE SUB FREEZING 925 MB AND 850 TEMPS NORTH OF THE PIKE ON TUESDAY...THE WARM LAYER ABOVE 800 MB WILL YIELD A COLD RAIN FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER THIS WARM LAYER BEGINS TO ERODE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH CAN SUPPORT A MIX OF SLEET AND/OR SNOW WITH THE RAIN BEFORE ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MA. ANY BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW WILL HINGE ON PRECIP INTENSITY AND ASSOCIATED DIABATIC COOLING/MELTING. HAVE PUT IN A MENTION OF SLEET IN THE FORECAST ESP IN LOCATIONS NORTH OF ROUTE 2...BUT IF THE WARM LAYER ERODES QUICKER...THEN THE WINTERY MIX COLD MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PIKE. NOT ANTICIPATE ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME ESP SINCE SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM.

OVERALL...ANTICIPATE A COLD RAW DAY THANKS TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AND CONTINUOUS RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TOMORROW NIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL COME TO AN END. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AS NORTHERLY DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS COULD HELP AID IN DROPPING SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. APPEARS THAT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND COOLER WED AND THU.
* SOME RAIN DEPENDING ON LOW PRES TRACK FRI.
* COOL AND MAINLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND.


OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
VERY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH SPLIT FLOW REGIMES PHASING ALONG THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. N OF THESE PHASED STREAMS IS A FAIRLY POTENT VORTEX WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE E PROGRESSION EXCEPT TO SLIDE FROM QUEBEC INTO LABRADOR . ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AN AMPLIFIED TROF/RIDGE COUPLET WILL BE ALSO BE SLOW TO WORK E. THE PHASING STREAMS WILL CULMINATE IN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY S OF THE REGION AFTER INITIAL FRONTAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR ANOTHER LATE WEEK WAVE BUT GIVEN THE VERY AMPLIFIED/WEAK PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...EXACTLY HOW FAR N THIS FRONTAL WAVE REACHES IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. ENSEMBLES PROVIDE A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND AT THIS TIME AS THEY COVER BOTH THE SRN AND NRN EXTREMES OF THE ENVELOPE. WILL CONTINUE TO USE THIS ENSEMBLE BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD..AS IT WILL ALSO WORK FOR PERIODS WHERE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC MODELS.

DETAILS...
WED AND THU...

CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE INTO NEW ENGLAND ATTENDANT TO RIDGING JUST W OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE CONDUIT OF COOLER AIR FROM THIS FEATURE WILL YIELD A DRY...BUT GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FORECAST AS H85 DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C WHILE H92 TEMPS HOLD CLOSER TO +2C. COULD NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST HEADLINES FOR THOSE AREAS ACTIVATED...AS OVERNIGHT MINS WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD FALL BACK TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR SOME AREAS.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...
FORECAST A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN HERE AS SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING OUT OF CANADA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SLOW MOVING LABRADOR VORTEX. IT/S INTERACTION WITH WEAK FLOW REGIME AND RIDGING STALLED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NOT WELL RESOLVED. WHILE THE GENERATION OF A ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO THE S...WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL HAVE HAVE ENOUGH CURVATURE TO PULL IT FAR ENOUGH N TO IMPACT SRN NEW ENGLAND IS THE PRIMARY ISSUE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH SOME MOISTURE INCREASE AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING BOTH A MISS AND A HIT...LOW END POPS ARE WARRANTED WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT GIVEN MORE TIME AND BETTER TRACKING OF THE RIDGE AND SECONDARY TROUGH...CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON WHETHER ANOTHER WET 24 HOUR PERIOD IS EXPECTED.

SAT...
REINFORCING COLD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SAT. NOTING ENOUGH LOW-MID LVL DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS SPAWNING ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. IT/S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN CURRENT PROGGED LOW LVL TEMPS...A FEW MORE FLAKES COULD FLY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.

SUN AND MON...
RETURN OF HIGH PRES TO THE REGION AS THE CANADIAN HIGH FINALLY DRIFTS E INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
Admin
 
Posts: 11650
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2007 5:56 pm
Location: Westfield, Ma

1984 Pontiac Trans Am
Car: 1984 Y84 RECARO T/A, WS6, GT4
Engine: L69
Transmission: T-5
Antispam: NO
Production Year: 1984

Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Fri May 13, 2016 8:03 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service
Taunton MA
747 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS
...
High pressure will prevail tonight. A cold front will bring
scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms Friday. Another cold front will bring more showers Saturday night, and perhaps a few thunderstorms. as well. Unseasonably cool weather follows Sunday and Monday, before temperatures return to seasonable levels by the middle of next week.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...740 AM UPDATE...
Forecast remains on track. Mainly brought the forecast back in line with observed trends.

TODAY...
Mid-level ridge will push offshore today. Southerly flow will continue this morning increasing dewpoints and low level moisture. Stratus will become more widespread across the south coast and into the interior. Cannot rule out the potential for drizzle or fog within the deck.

Surface low will develop along the cold front in the Mid-Atlantic. This low and its associated fronts will approach southern New England today. Timing of the system has been the biggest issues as guidance continues to slow the system down with each run.

As the warm front approaches, expect scattered showers to move across the area mid to late morning. Then as the cold front approaches from the west, widespread showers with embedded thunder will move through late this afternoon into the evening hours. Guidance indicates some elevated instability, but believe the strong to severe thunderstorms are not expected, as CAPE values remain low and mid-level lapse rates are not impressive. Main threat within any thunderstorms is heavy rainfall as PWAT values are near 1.5 inches, which is 2-3 STD above normal. Temperatures today will warm into the low 70s as overcast skies will limit radiational heating.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
Behind the cold front, dry weather should briefly return tonight as temperatures begin to cool. Biggest question is if fog will develop overnight or not. Appears that there may be enough low level moisture as skies clear resulting radiation fog development. Low confidence on how low vsbys will drop, went the conservative
route for this forecast.

Mid-level ridge will build behind this first front tonight and last into the first half of Saturday resulting in dry weather. This will slow the timing down for the second front. Temperatures will warm into lower to mid 70s thanks to the slower timing of the frontal passage.

Prefrontal trough will begin to approach the region during the later half of the day. This cold front is a bit more potent then todays as temps aloft cool down pretty quickly. This cool down, combined with warm surface temps, may result in some gusty winds and small hail as the front passes through late Saturday. Decided to hold off in mentioning the potential in the grids, as the timing isn`t favorable. But something to watch in the coming day.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...SATURDAY NIGHT...
A cold front will have deep moisture ahead of it, with precipitable water values around 1 inch. Stability parameters are marginal, but there may be enough of a low level jet and surface convergence ahead of the front to maintain a few thunderstorms overnight. Showers should end after midnight, once the cold front passes by.

Sunday and Monday...
Unseasonably colder air arrives, with a a persistent upper low slowly moving from the Great Lakes to the Maritimes. Most of the time should be dry. But sufficient instability Sunday for diurnal clouds and scattered showers. The greatest risk for showers will occur over western and central Massachusetts. Winds in the mixed layer will reach 20 to 25 knots, so expecting gusty surface winds.

If winds diminish enough Sunday night and Monday night, there could be patches of frost in the cold spots each morning. Most temperatures should be too high for frost.

Tuesday...
High pressure at surface with zonal flow aloft. We still expect a dry period with temperatures trending to seasonable levels.

Wednesday and Thursday...
Rather uncertain about this portion of the forecast, particularly Wednesday. Weakening ridge of high pressure at the surface. GFS passes a low pressure to our south, while the ECMWF and CMC are more of a direct hit to southern New England. Introduced a chance for showers into the forecast, at least until the timing becomes more clear. Showers may persist into Thursday morning high pressure should arrive later in the day.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Wed May 18, 2016 7:20 am

FXUS61 KBOX 180751
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
351 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS..
.
Weak high pressure builds across the region today and tonight. Aweak front may trigger scattered showers or even thunderstorms Thursday. High pressure over the Northeast USA Friday and early Saturday brings dry weather to New England. Low pressure developing over the Southeast USA moves northeast past Nantucket
Sunday. Second low pressure develops off the Carolina coast Saturday and moves north over Southern New England early next week.

&&
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Coastal low pres will continue to bring a band of light rain to the Cape/Islands through sunrise..but then will lead to increased sunshine mixed with mid-clouds through the remainder of the morning.

Brief ridge of high pres controls sensible wx today, leading to mainly dry conditions with periods of clouds mixing in due to modest cyclonic curvature to the NE. Max temp switch-up expected today, as the wrn MA/CT are likely to be the warmest, and in the low 70s while the eastern third of the region cools due to sea breeze influence beginning mid morning.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Tonight...
High pres remains in control during the overnight hours, but shortwave passing to the S may yield increasing clouds at times through the overnight hours. Mins therefore, not expected to be as cold as they could with full decoupling, but still mainly in the 40s across much of the region.

Thu...
Upper lvl shortwave becomes weak cutoff across nrn New England. This feature is coincident with H5 temps dropping below -20C and mid lvl lapse rates exceeding 6C/km. Combine this with an increase in pwats near 0.75 inches...and as mixing/warming commences mid day expect shra activity to develop mainly across the interior where heating will be maximized first/ then spread to the east. Will continue to highlight low risk for TS with these shra due to ice development and high lapse rates.

Low risk for small hail with very low wetbulb-zero lvls and cold H5 temps as well as some gusty winds with mixing to H8 providing nice inverted-v profiles.

Highs a bit cooler than previous days due both to an increase in early clouds and another round of expected sea breezes.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Big Picture
...
Longwave trough develops over the western USA while a longwave ridge builds over the east. This suggests a trend to warmer temperatures during the long term period. At shortwave scales the picture is a little different. One shortwave over New England Thursday night moves off through the Maritimes. A second shortwave, ejected out of the western trough, moves east across the Plains and generates surface low pressure over the Southeast USA Friday. This low passes offshore of Nantucket Sunday morning. A third shortwave drops south from the northern stream and helps form a closed low over the Mid Atlantic states by Monday with a surface reflection of this low over the coastal waters and slowly moving up the coast to New England.

The shortwaves Sunday and Tuesday suggest unsettled weather the latter half of the weekend and early next week. The building longwave ridge brings a trend to seasonably warm temperatures late this week. Low level northeast flow Sunday through Tuesday may keep temps closer to seasonal levels.

Details...
Thursday night through Saturday
...
Lingering scattered showers/tstms early Thursday night from the first shortwave and lingering cold pool instability aloft. These features move off to the east by midnight with clearing and more stable air in place by morning. Light wind and moist ground may lead to areas of fog and poor vsbys.

High pressure in place during this period with dry weather. Developing southwest flow aloft will bring increasing high-level moisture and clouds Friday night and Saturday. Mixing should reach 800 mb Friday and 850 mb Saturday. Temperatures at those levels support max sfc temps in the Low to Mid 70s both days. Dew points in the 40s suggest mins in the 40s Thursday night and 45-55 during the cloudier Friday night.

Saturday night and Sunday...
Second shortwave moves past Nantucket. Supporting upper jet shifts east placing us in the favorable right entrance region supporting upper venting and lift. Low level inflow of moist air is more limited to southern parts of the region. A blend of the GFS and ECMWF brings the most consistent solution and is favored here. That will keep the heaviest rain offshore with the best chance on land taking place over Cape Cod and the Islands. Northern edge of rain shield would be along the Mass Pike. This could extend into Northeast Mass Sunday morning as the offshore low makes its closest approach.

Monday and Tuesday...
Differences between the GFS and ECMWF with the coastal system next week. But both end in the same place with the surface low crossing East Coastal MA late Tuesday. This scenario would bring rain/showers to our area Monday and Tuesday. As this is late in the forecast period we have capped pops at 40 pct.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Thu May 26, 2016 9:50 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service
Taunton MA
700 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS
...
Warm weather will continue through Saturday, except at times along the immediate coast. A backdoor cold front will bring cooler weather to eastern New England Sunday with warm weather continuing elsewhere. Dry weather dominates through Sunday other than isolated showers/thunderstorms at times, then a period of more widespread showers are possible Monday. Above normal temperatures continue through midweek then turning cooler toward the end of the week.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
7 pm update...

A few showers developed along the sea breeze boundary from southern NH into northeast MA but this activity is diminishing. HRRR is indicating a few showers tonight across northern and central New England as weak shortwave moves through. Current forecast on track.

Previous Discussion...
Mid level ridge sinks south a bit but overall conditions remain the same as previous couple of days. Winds will keep an onshore direction overnight so with sea surface temperatures in the mid to upper 50s, expect low temperatures in the same range along the coast. Temperatures will be warmer farther inland, with lows in the low 60s expected.

A very weak shortwave will move through the westerly mid-level flow. This could result in a few showers occurring during the night. Think this will be very spotty and while there is enough instability for thunder to be possible, don`t think it will be frequent or common. Continued slight chance to very low end chance pops mainly for the western zones.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Friday...Mid level ridge continues to be the main influence of our weather. It will be another warm day for much of the area with southerly winds. The pressure gradient is a little tighter, so we may get away without a sea breeze developing on the east coast. The South coast will be the larger concern with southerly winds keeping temperatures along the coast cool. Expect high temperatures into the mid to upper 80s for most locations away from the south coast.

A pre-frontal trough will move into southern New England during the day which could result in some convection. However, there are some limiting factors, including rising heights, that will limit this potential somewhat. There will be enough instability generated during the day as well as elevated instability for thunder to develop. Again, think this will be rather spotty and isolated for the most part.

Friday night...
Any isolated convection that does occur will diminish during the evening hours. Then dry weather is expected. Low temperatures are expected to be in the 60s. With dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s, patchy ground fog will likely develop in the typically prone locations.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Highlights...
* Hot Sat w/highs mainly 85-95 in the interior, cooler coast
* Cooler Sun east coastal MA/NH/ME but continued very warm further in the interior
* Mainly dry Sat/Sun other than iso showers/t-storms in the interior
* More widespread showers may affect the region Mon then mainly dry for the rest of the week
* Above normal temperatures through midweek then turning cooler

Details...
Saturday
...
Hot and increasingly humid conditions as anomalous mid level ridge builds across New England. 850 temps up to 17C will result in highs 85-95 degrees in the interior, mainly west of I-95 corridor. SW flow off cooler SST will yield cooler temps in the SE coastal plain and especially along the south coast as mixing is more shallow and cooler 925 mb temps noted. Expect highs in the 80s coastal plain with 70s along the immediate south coast and Cape/Islands.

The hot temps and increasing dewpoints will destabilize the atmosphere with CAPEs 1000-2000 J/kg developing in the interior. However, there are limiting factors with building mid level ridge and anticyclonic flow which will serve to suppress activity in the absence of notable synoptic forcing. And mid levels will be fairly dry. Most of SNE should remain dry but can`t rule out a few showers/t-storms across Northern and Western New England into Western CT late in the day into Sat evening. Severe threat is low given weakly sheared environment, but if any convection develops there is potential for gusty winds with decent instability and inverted V sounding profile.

Sunday...
Timing of a backdoor cold front remains very uncertain which will significantly impact temps. GFS is most aggressive moving the front through much of SNE by morning while NAM/ECMWF are much slower and keep much of the region in the very warm air. Will continue the theme of the previous forecast indicating cooler air moving into Eastern New England with temps mostly in the 70s, but warmer 80s further west and especially CT River Valley where temps may approach 90 again if front is delayed. This is not a high confidence temp forecast as a 6 hour change in timing will make a big difference. Models generating 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE west of the boundary so a few showers/t-storms possible ahead of the front, mainly central/W New England but this will be dependent on the timing and location of the front. Deep layer shear remains weak so severe threat is low.

Monday...
Models indicate a mid level shortwave moving through as a plume of tropical moisture surges northward ahead of possible tropical disturbance to the south. Models indicate PWATs increasing to near 2 inches with marginal instability developing, depending on extent of cloud cover. This may lead to more widespread showers and sct t-storms with locally heavy rainfall possible. Confidence on how this plays out is not high but the potential exists for wet weather. Temps will be dependent on extent of clouds/showers but a cooler day is likely.

Tuesday through Thursday...
Deep moisture plume will be exiting the region by Tue as a cold front moves offshore with significant decrease in PWATs. Looks mainly dry Tue although if front is slower, shower threat could linger. Then mainly dry Wed/Thu as high pres builds in from the N. Temps cooling mid to late week as easterly flow develops.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Wed Jun 01, 2016 7:50 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
623 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over southeast Canada will remain in control
through Thursday...bringing fair and mild conditions...along with
comfortable humidity levels to the region. An approaching cold
front will bring a threat of showers to the region Thursday night
into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 620 AM EDT...mainly clear skies and mild conditions
prevailed across the forecast area with temperatures in the 50s.

A large ridge of high pressure will settle southeast from Canada
across our region today providing mostly sunny skies and
comfortable conditions with fairly low humidity levels. Highs will
be in the mid 70s to lower 80s with winds becoming easterly at 5
to 10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather will hold through most of Thursday as the ridge of
high pressure slides off the eastern seaboard tonight. Skies will
start out mainly clear this evening and then become partly cloudy
overnight. Clouds will be on the increase on Thursday as a warm
front moves into western New York Thursday morning. Showers will
break out across the northwestern third of the fa during the
afternoon as the warm front pushes east across New York State.
Have also included a slight chance of thunder in the grids as
Showalter indices start to trend toward negative values while
MLMUCAPES of several hundred J/KG will be possible. Lows tonight
are expected to be in the 50s with highs on Thursday in the mid
70s to lower 80s.

Thursday evening will see the warm front push across eastern New
York and into western New England as a cold front approaches from
central and western New York. This will keep the showers going
which will likely increase in coverage. Will continue to mention a
slight chance of thunderstorms as Showalter indices go negative
Thursday night. Expect lows to be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

The cold front will cross the region on Friday with more showers
and isolated thunderstorms. MLMUCAPES still only a few hundred
J/KG so not expecting any widespread activity. Highs on Friday
will be cooler than recent days due to cloud cover and precipitation.
Expect highs to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

On Friday night the showers will come to an end with improving
conditions overnight. Expect lows Friday night to be in the upper
40s to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A period of unsettled weather and cooler temperatures are in the
forecast for later half of the weekend into early next week.

Latest NCEP model suite, international guidance and ensembles all
suggest a rather vigorous wave coming ashore across British Columbia
will carve out an upper level trough across the Great Lakes region
and spread throughout the northeast corridor later in the weekend
and continue into early next week. Saturday may be the best day
with broad surface ridge and short wave ridge axis sliding overhead
for partial June sunshine and near seasonable temperatures.

Then subtropical moisture along with the approach of the
aforementioned Great Lakes system will converge along the southeast
and eastern seaboard Saturday night into Sunday. There remains some
model timing issues as the GFS is the most amplified and hence a
slower surface low track than the ECMWF/GGEM, nevertheless, a soggy
and cooler end to this first weekend of June. The best moisture
transport and higher theta-e air appears to remain just to our south
and east of the CWFA to reduce the threat of heavy rainfall at this
time. As for thunderstorm potential, instability parameters have
diminished as we will drop back to slight chance pops for
thunderstorms at this time /showalters have risen a couple of
degrees and lapse rates were near moist adiabatic/.

Early next week does not look much better with cool and moist
cyclonic flow around the upper low in the vicinity of the Great
Lakes and the passage of a couple of surface boundaries to keep PoPs
elevated and temperatures on the cooler side /mainly 60s to lower
70s and overnight lows in the 40s across the terrain to 50s
elsewhere/.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Wed Jun 15, 2016 1:16 pm

AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1002 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will remain in control through this weekend, resulting in cool nights and warm afternoons with low humidity. Warmer and more humid conditions are expected early next week with a risk of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 am update...Clear skies across SNE this morning as batch of clouds have moved offshore. Upstream soundings are rather dry so lots of sunshine
today, although cross sections show increasing moisture in the 850-700 mb layer this afternoon in eastern New Eng which may bring some clouds to this area. 850 mb temps 12-13C supports highs in the low/mid 80s...cooler south coast where winds will turn sw. Along the east coast, BL winds should be just strong enough to
keep sea breezes at bay. It will remain rather dry, with dewpoints dropping into the 40s to lower 50s as mixing increases.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Southern New England eventually gets into a col tonight and Thursday. A low pressure is expected to move from the western Great Lakes tonight, and move off the mid Atlantic coast toward daybreak Thursday. Confluence aloft should keep our weather dry, by steering this low pressure just far enough away from our region. At this time, only expecting an increase in clouds across
southwest MA and northern CT late tonight into Thursday.

Temperatures should be near seasonable levels.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...
* Mild to warm days & cool nights w/low humidity through Saturday
* Low risk for some showers Sunday, otherwise dry
* Pattern change to more summerlike weather possible early next week

Overview and model preferences...
Blocked pattern remains the dominant into early next week as cutoffs across the PACNW and Canadian Maritimes meander slowly E with building ridge across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. This pattern will continue to draw drier CP air from the Canadian prairies across much of Srn New England into the weekend. The little movement will maintain the stationary front to the SW, along with highest moisture-content and destabilized air, so will maintain the dry forecast which has been advertised over the last
few days. In fact even know, the ECMWF have joined the ECENS/GEFS members in keeping hybrid-warm core system offshore Sun-Mon. Given the better agreement now, will use deterministic guidance as a baseline for the forecast through Sun, but then lean back on the ECENS/GEFS due to the influence of the hybrid system in the ECMWF.

Details...

Thu night through Sun...
Mainly dry with atmospheric squeeze-play in place. Only caveat may be Fri as developing trof begins to phase with the Maritime Cutoff, increasing overall lift and weak warm advection across Srn New England. However, moisture/unstable air remains well to the SW, so any shra activity that develops will be widely scattered, and several locations may remain dry.

H85 temps remain close to +10C most days, so expect highs reaching upper 70s to mid 80s under full mixing. Sea breezes limit temps near coast. Overnight mins drop off thanks to radiational cooling setup, mainly 50s.

Mon and Tue...
Initial warming will lead to H85 temps nearly +15C, thanks to ingestion of warm air from the subtropics (ECMWF features this especially with the development of an offshore system). Therefore, could see a period where highs reach the mid 80s and even into the 90s. Cold frontal passage possible, with timing being the primary
key to how much if any convection occurs, as current timing. The infusion of subtropical air does lead to more destabilized column. Still timing to watch this feature.

Mid next week...
Latest trends and ensemble probabilities area bit cooler than previous runs following the cold frontal passage, featuring the development of another longwave trof across the northeast. This may contradict the earlier, warmer thinking unless the subtropical stream can maintain beyond the cold frontal passage.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Wed Jun 22, 2016 11:13 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service
932 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler air mass will be over eastern New York and western New England...as an upper level disturbance will bring some moderate to heavy showers this morning into the early afternoon hours across VT, NH, and ME. Fair and dry weather will return late this afternoon into tonight. Low pressure moving along a warm front near the Pennsylvania New York border will bring a chance of showers mainly for areas south of the Mass Turnpike on Thursday.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper impulse and associated band of showers tracking through the southern Adirondacks and Lake George region...will track into VT, NH, and ME through midday. The southern edge of the showers
looks to be along the Mohawk Valley to just North of Mass Rt 2.

There is a sharp back edge of the rain and clouds...and clearing will spread east rapidly through the early afternoon as west to northwest winds become breezy. The afternoon sun and winds should help mixing and highs later this afternoon are expected to be in the 70s to around 80...with some 60s in Northern New England.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight...

Expect dry weather across the forecast area as a weak ridge of high pressure builds into the region and remains in place for much of tonight. Lows tonight will range from the mid 40s northwest to the mid 50s southeast.

The models have come into agreement with the handling of the next system giving the southern half of the forecast area scattered showers while the northern half of the forecast area remains dry. This will be the result of an area of low pressure moving east along a stationary front located over the middle Atlantic Region on Thursday. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Thursday night through Friday night is expected to be dry as a large ridge of high pressure moves east from the upper midwest late Thursday into the northeast late Friday night. Lows Thursday Night will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s with highs on Friday in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Lows Friday night will be in the 50s.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level ridging will be in place over the region over the weekend with sfc high pressure anchored nearby (over eastern New England), allowing for above normal warmth each day with plenty of sunshine and no precip expected. Highs look to reach the mid to upper 80s on Saturday for valley areas and upper 80s to low 90s on Sunday. Despite the warm temps, it won`t be overly muggy just yet as dewpoints remain in the 50s. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

As the sfc high pressure area gradually shifts eastward, there will be more a return flow on Monday, and dewpoints look to gradually creep up towards 60. It will continue to be warm on Monday with highs near 90. Overnight lows will be a bit more milder with temps only falling off into the 60s. Meanwhile, upper level heights will start to lower, as a cutoff low off the coast starts to retrograde back westward, breaking down the ridge in place. It still look fairly rain-free across the region on Monday, as any large-scale forcing still looks too far away. The exception may be far northwestern parts of the area where a late day shower may be possible.

Eventually, an upper level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will start to move towards the area for the mid-week period. A shower or t-storm is possible as early as Monday night, but looks more likely Tuesday or Wednesday as the trough and it`s associated sfc frontal system moves across the region. Temps will continue to be warm ahead of the feature on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid-80s.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
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Posts: 11650
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Mon Jun 27, 2016 10:16 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
630 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS
...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 630 AM EDT.
..
Most of the area remains mostly sunny at this time, although clouds are thickening across areas north and west of the Hudson River in NY, as a pre-frontal trough approaches from the eastern Great Lakes. Temps are very warm for early morning, mainly in the 60s.

A solid band of showers with embedded isolated thunder extends from near the St. Lawrence valley south and west across central/western New York. These showers will gradually shift eastward into mainly the NW half of the area through the morning hours. Not much surface based instability will develop due to extensive cloud cover moving in, but some elevated instability will lead to some embedded thunder. The showers and storms will tend to decrease in coverage by later in the afternoon and especially the evening, due to weakening of the trough as it moves eastward across the area.

Some breaks of sunshine are expected late in the day, which should help boost max temps into the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned pre-frontal trough will stall and become diffuse near western New England tonight. So will only mention isolated to widely scattered showers. It will be another mild night with a southerly breezy persisting, with low temps in the 60s.

Tuesday is expected to be the most active day of the week in terms of convective potential. At the surface, a cold front will gradually push eastward across the region during the afternoon and evening. Aloft, a positive to neutral tilt upper level trough is forecast to deepen just to our west over the eastern Great Lakes. Height falls and cyclonic vorticity advection aloft combined with low level convergence along the cold front should result in fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially during the afternoon across eastern NY spreading eastward to western New England by evening.

There is a marginal risk for some of the thunderstorms to become severe if sufficient instability can develop. Some breaks of sunshine are expected ahead of the cold front, but it is unclear how unstable it will get as model guidance differs with the GFS indicating 500-1500 J/Kg of SBCAPE, while the NAM has more robust values of around 1500-3000 J/Kg. Should more sunshine materialize, the NAM values would be reasonable, but this is uncertain at this time. Deep layer shear will be increasing to around 25-40 kt, so organized severe storms will be possible given ample buoyancy. Will mention the marginal risk in HWO.

Showers will continue Tuesday night, as the cold front only gradually makes eastward progress, while the upper level trough axis remains to our west with a continued cyclonic flow. Coverage/intensity of thunder should decrease by late evening though as instability is forecast to wane.

Will continue to mention chance pops for scattered showers with isolated thunder for Wednesday, siding with the slower ECMWF/NAM guidance compared to faster GFS. The upper level trough may become a closed low, which would slow its progress. The more progressive GFS continues to show and open wave. Max temps Wednesday should be cooler than recent days, but close to normal for late June.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period is expected to start out with fair weather and seasonably warm temperatures. At the surface high pressure is expected to be over the region. While aloft, the region is expected to be between short wave trough.

A cold front will be on the approaches from the northwest as we close out the work week and head into the long holiday weekend. Convection is expected as the front approaches on Friday and crosses the region Friday night.

Guidance indicates an upper level low should develop over the Great Lakes region with it becoming stacked. This stacked low then is modeled to move gradually eastward across eastern Canada over the holiday weekend as short waves rotating about it maintaining an upper level trough over the region. At this time, it appears the weather across the local area should be fair for the holiday weekend as the upper low is modeled to remain far enough to our north while the cold front that moves through is forecast to stall far enough to our south. A wave of low pressure is expected to move eastward along this boundary. Subtle changes in the expected locations of these features will result in changes to a fair weather forecast.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Tue Jun 28, 2016 1:06 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1120 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...FROM THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER @ 1PM
NEW YORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
A RELATIVELY WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ONTARIO INTO WESTERN NY. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LOW CLOUDS ARE CLEARING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...FROM EAST-CENTRAL PA NORTHWARD INTO MUCH OF EASTERN NY VT AND INTO W.ME. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S IN THIS CORRIDOR WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 2000 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ONLY MINIMALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...MODERATE CAPE VALUES AND STRONG WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING..PA/NY/VT... A RELATIVELY WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ONTARIO INTO WESTERN NY. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LOW CLOUDS ARE CLEARING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... FROM EAST-CENTRAL PA NORTHWARD INTO MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND VT. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S IN THIS CORRIDOR WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 2000 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ONLY MINIMALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...MODERATE CAPE VALUES AND STRONG WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.


.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1100 AM EDT...

...Continuing to closely monitor the potential for severe
thunderstorms across much of the region this afternoon into this evening
...

Cold front appears to be along the I81 corridor yet ample stratus was lingering across most of our local region. This has slowed down the heating a bit but several breaks are noticeable all across the region. LAPS/SPC Mesoscale windows show SBCAPES climbing to around 1k J/KG (especially where breaks are more pronounced and along differential heating boundaries) with PWATS generally between 1-1.25" which is near to just above normal. Expectations are as the upper trough over Michigan approaches and a surface focus with the slow moving frontal boundary that convection should initiate over the next couple of hours as we approach and exceed our convective temperature. SPC continues with the slight risk at this time as wet microbursts appear to be the main severe threat. As for rainfall, while anomalies are not too high and antecedent dry conditions of late, there is an outside chance for flooding/flash flooding as training of convection could occur due to slow movement of the surface front and modest winds aloft. So for this update, removed pops up til noon then continued with the higher pops through the afternoon and evening hours. Slowed down the diurnal temperature climb a bit along with more clouds initially before become partly sunny.

Prev disc...
A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of low stratus clouds around, but most of the area will see breaks of sunshine by early afternoon, which will allow for moderate instability to develop. The only area where the stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on longer is across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and Litchfield Counties and points eastwatd where there is a Marginal Risk of severe storms, compared to the greater Slight Risk farther west across the rest of the area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through the eastern Great Lakes. Storms will intensify and move eastward in a line running SW to NE from the Hudson River Valley in New York, into North-Central VT/NH, and across the vore of Maine by mid-afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin` CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could result in isolated flash flooding. Widespread but thin breaks in the clouds are beginning to appear arcoss the region. If this clearing becomes more profound, strong to severe storm potential will become more likely, with a potential for some Supercell development.

Showers and storms will continue to move across Maine and northern Vermont/New Hampshire and push into Central and Southern New England this afternoon and evening, and should tend to weaken after dusk, but still may produce gusty winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent showers or storms.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson valley eastward into western New England this evening and overnight and progress across New England overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to east. The cold front should clear most of New England by sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms could be strong during the afternoon depending on how much instability develops ahead of the trough with dew points remaining high across much of New England.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should begin to end from west to east on Wednesday evening, as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited precip potential for Friday and Friday night at this time due to timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across Eastern Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal levels for Monday Independence Day.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Wed Jun 29, 2016 9:29 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
705 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered showers will come to an end early this morning, followed by a warm and humid afternoon with the low risk of a few strong thunderstorms across eastern New England. Dry and seasonable weather follows tonight and Thursday. Another cold front may bring more showers and thunderstorms Friday or Saturday. Dry weather returns for the remainder of the holiday weekend.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***Low risk for a few strong thunderstorms across eastern New England this afternoon***

There remains one area of showers that`s stretched roughly from the MA/RI/CT border to the MA/NH border in Middlesex County. The strongest part of this area of showers is in southern Worcester County currently and continues to move to the north and east. While these showers are producing locally heavy rainfall, at this time, it does not appear to be at rates steep enough to produce any flooding. In addition, there hasn`t been any lightning detected with these storms, but it cannot be ruled out. Made a few minor updates to the forecast, mainly to the PoP and sky forecasts for the next few hours. Otherwise, the forecast is on track.

For the rest of the morning and into this afternoon, mainly dry weather will prevail. Surface winds turning west southwest should allow skies to become partly sunny allowing highs to recover into the lower to middle 80s away from the immediate coast. Dewpoints in the 60s will also make it feel rather humid today, so a summerlike day is on tap.

While the vast majority of the day will be dry, the main uncertainty is if we are able to generate a few thunderstorms this afternoon across eastern New England as a cold front crosses the region. The highest risk for this will be across eastern MA, where sea breeze interaction might assist in development. We should see 1000+ j/kg of Cape develop across eastern New England with mid level lapse rates increasing to between 6 and 6.5 c/km. In addition, 0 to 6 km shear values will be on the order of 40 knots. These are all favorable parameters for a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. However, there is one big negative factor which is an abundance of mid level dry air. This may prevent any convection from developing and its possible we end up with just low topped showers.

So to sum up, there is a low risk for a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms across eastern New England this afternoon, but too much mid level dry air may prevent this from occurring. Highest risk might be on a subtle sea breeze front, which may allow for a bit better moisture to pool. Something will certainly have to keep a close eye on today.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
Tonight..
.
If any isolated showers/t-storms are able to develop across eastern New England this afternoon, they should quickly diminish early this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Skies should become mostly clear allowing low temps to drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s in most locations. Light winds will likely allow for patchy ground fog to develop in the typically prone locations overnight, which may be locally dense.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* High pressure brings dry weather Thursday
* A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms Friday/Saturday
* High pressure brings dry weather for the remainder of the holiday weekend


Overview...Relatively quiet pattern continues with broad upper level ridge over the western U.S. and broad upper troughing over the eastern U.S. The ridging pushes into the center of the country by early next week. Models are in good agreement on the synoptic pattern and will use a blend of available guidance for this forecast. Low pressure in Ontario moves into Quebec, pulling a cold front from the Great Lakes through southern New England Friday or Saturday (consensus is a bit faster than the ECMWF). This will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area. High pressure builds into New England from the Great Lakes for the remainder of the holiday weekend, before moving offshore Tuesday.

Temperatures...Aside from slightly cooler temperatures Thursday and Saturday, behind two cold fronts, temperatures will gradually warm into early next week. By Tuesday, temperatures could be reaching into the upper 80s to lower 90s again.

Precipitation...The only shot of rain in the long term forecast is showers and thunderstorms with the cold front Friday or Saturday.
Timing looks to be late Friday into Saturday morning but there are still some differences in the timing. This will ultimately determine how widespread showers and thunderstorms are and the severity of those storms. Models are indicating quite a bit of instability, despite the
timing. The GFS is more unstable, but has earlier timing, with showers and thunderstorms occurring during the late afternoon and evening on Friday. The ECMWF is overall less unstable, but shows a burst of instability early Saturday morning. Will include thunder in the forecast for this time period. This period also bears watching for the potential for severe weather, again depending on timing.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Fri Jul 01, 2016 7:38 am

TORNADO RISK MAP
Image

NORTHEAST US INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS NWD ON STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW. THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INITIALLY CONFINED TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY WILL MOVE INTO THE DELAWARE AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE DAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. A CORRIDOR OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS ALBANY NY AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S FARTHER S NEAR THE DELMARVA. STRENGTHENING AND VEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE BAND OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE WARM SECTOR. A MIX OF CELLS AND SMALL LINE SEGMENTS WILL POSE PRIMARILY A RISK FOR WIND DAMAGE CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER WHEREAS HIGHER BUOYANCY AND SOME BACKED/TERRAIN-CHANNELED FLOW IN THE HUDSON VALLEY MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO RISK. FARTHER S...WLY H5 FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS. ISOLATED TO SCTD STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AND MOVE EWD TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A MORE STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPH AND MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND THREAT. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EVENING BEFORE STORMS MOVE E OFF OF THE COAST.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Fri Jul 01, 2016 2:36 pm

TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT!

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 313
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016


Image

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN CONNECTICUT
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NEW YORK
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
SOUTHERN VERMONT
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND COUPLE TORNADOES...EXPECTED TO FORM/STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD GENERALLY EAST ACROSS EASTERN NY AND NE PA INTO NRN NJ AND WRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF GLENS FALLS NEW YORK TO 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF NEWARK NEW JERSEY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND WARNING STATEMENTS.

NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC TODAY INTO TNGT...
SEASONABLY STRONG 700-500 MB FLOW ALREADY PRESENT OVER PARTS OF THE NERN U.S. WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD E/NE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY/TNGT AS GRT LKS TROUGH CONTINUES GENERALLY EWD. SFC/STREAMLINE ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT A CONFLUENCE AXIS IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE THIS MORNING FROM ERN WV NWD INTO CNTRL NY...WELL E OF BOTH THE OHIO COLD FRONT AND WRN PA/NY CONVECTIVE BAND. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC AND SATELLITE PW DATA SHOW APPRECIABLE MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S F AND PW AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ SPREADING NWD FROM THE DELMARVA REGION ACROSS ERN PA AND NJ.

CONTINUED SFC HEATING AND MOISTENING ALONG WITH MODERATE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH UPR TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AFTN STORM DEVELOPMENT IN WEAKLY-CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FROM CNTRL/ERN NY SWD INTO MD-VA. DEVELOPMENT MAY BE MOST CONCENTRATED ALONG THE CONFLUENCE AXIS AND...POSSIBLY...ON ERN EDGE OF WRN PA/NY CONVECTIVE BAND.

AMPLE /40+ KT/ WSWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS...BUT STORM MODE WILL BE COMPLEX GIVEN MULTIPLE SOURCES OF LOW-LVL UPLIFT AND WEAK CINH. WITH TIME...OVERALL SET-UP SUGGESTS LIKELY EVOLUTION INTO A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE NE/SW SQWALL LINE...WITH THE MOST PROGRESSIVE/LONG-LIVED PART CONTINUING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND BY EVE. STORMS THROUGHOUT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE SEVERE HAIL /ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON/...WITH INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR DAMAGING WIND. DEPENDING UPON STORM MODE AND TERRAIN INTERACTIONS...SOME RISK ALSO WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY FROM ERN PA/NJ NEWD INTO ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE...WHERE IT APPEARS THAT MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF INCREASING MOISTURE/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL RESIDE ATOP POTENTIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Thu Jul 07, 2016 12:07 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
515 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

COUNTIES IN THIS STATEMENT INCLUDE
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-FRANKLIN MA-WORCESTER MA-MIDDLESEX MA-ESSEX MA-HAMPSHIRE MA-HAMPDEN MA-NORFOLK MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...


SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLOODING. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. SMALL HAIL, HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE, AND DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Wed Jul 13, 2016 10:13 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
926 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY2/FRI PERIOD AS LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...WITHIN BROADER UPPER TROUGH...EJECTS ACROSS SRN ON INTO QC. BELT OF SEASONALLY STRONG 500MB FLOW...ON THE ORDER OF 35KT...IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NERN OH...INTO NEW ENGLAND PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODESTLY STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS BY MID DAY. CURRENT THINKING IS SCT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO UPSTATE NY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD INTO MAINE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS TOWARD THE LOWER ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE EXPANDED THE MRGL SEVERE RISK TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE NERN U.S. AND NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...HOWEVER A SLGT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND DUE TO EXPECTED LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT AND POSSIBLE STORM ORGANIZATION. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the eastern seaboard will result in a hot and humid flow of air into the region through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through Thursday, with the greatest coverage expected Thursday afternoon and evening as a weak cold front approaches. Gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall will be possible with thunderstorms. A secondary cold front will track through on Friday...possibly triggering an isolated shower or thunderstorm.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 925 PM EDT...
An upper level impulse approaching from the
southwest, along with a weak/subtle lee trough across eastern PA into NJ/MD may provide enough forcing to allow for some isolated to scattered showers to persist into tonight for areas mainly south and east of Albany. Any showers will be capable of producing brief downpours.

It will be another warm and muggy night, with low temps only in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the region.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday still looks to be the most convectively active day of the period in terms of coverage of convection and intensity of thunderstorms. There will still be plenty of heat and moisture available for moderate to high levels of instability. Forecast SBCAPE could reach 2000-3000 J/Kg across parts of the region, with 0-6 km shear increasing to around 25-35 kt. A pre-frontal surface trough will provide the trigger for convective development, with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected by mid to late afternoon. A few of the storms may become severe with damaging winds the main threat, especially from Albany northward where the
shear is forecast to be greatest. PWATS are expected to rise to between +1 to +3 STDEV, so heavy rainfall is likely within any persistent storms. Localized urban flooding is possible, along with isolated flash flooding due to torrential downpours. Will keep mention of these threats in the HWO. Temps may be a few degrees cooler than Wednesday due to more clouds/precip around, however dewpoints could exceed 70 in many locations, causing heat indices to reach the mid to upper 90s in valleys.

Convection should weaken by late Thursday evening, although isolated to scattered showers and storms will still be possible through Thursday night ahead cold front that will be approaching from the eastern Great Lakes. The cold front is expected to move across the rrgion on Friday, although with less instability and moisture in wake of the pre-frontal trough passage. Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible along with scattered showers, but coverage will be less than Thursday as the deeper moisture moves offshore. Temps will be quite warm again ahead of the cold front, with mid 80s to lower 90s forecast from the Hudson Valley eastward.
It will be slightly cooler to the west across the Adirondacks and Catskills.

Dry weather should return for Friday night, as high pressure starts to build in from the west in wake of the cold front passage with a northwest flow developing.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A drier weekend is setting up for eastern NY and western New England with unsettled weather returning for early next week.

The latest ECMWF/GEFS/GFS and WPC guidance suggest a weak trough moving southeast across the region could trigger isolated showers Saturday, mainly across northern areas in the afternoon. Otherwise, cyclonic flow will persist aloft with the weak sfc
high drifting over the region for Sunday. High temperatures should reach the lower 80s in valleys, and 70s across higher elevations Saturday, then perhaps about 5 degrees warmer for Sunday. Overnight lows will generally fall into the 50 to lower 60s.

A cold front will start to approach the forecast area from north of the Great Lakes Region and southeast Canada for Monday-Tuesday as the flow aloft becomes quasi-zonal with a short-wave interacting with the cold front. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Monday...with the greater threat in the afternoon. The showers and thunderstorms should diminish Monday night. The question is how far south the cold front dips across the region. There is enough uncertainty with the medium range guidance to keep a chance of thunderstorms in for TUE. It will be a bit more humid with sfc dewpts in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Temps will be near normal to slightly above normal for mid-July.

By Wednesday, upper level heights should begin rising again as the front moves well south and east of the region. Expect highs to reach the lower/mid 80s in valleys, and 75-80 across higher elevations. Lows Wed AM should fall into the 50s to mid 60s.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Mon Jul 18, 2016 8:49 am

AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
649 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS
...
An approaching cold front will bring a round of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early tonight. The front will cross the region later tonight, followed by high pressure which will build over the region on Wednesday then shift offshore by Thursday. Heat and humidity will return for Friday lasting into the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will move back into the region for the weekend as a cold front moves through.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
700 AM update...


Patchy dense fog across the south coast this morning will begin to lift over the next hour or two. Because the fog is patchy in nature per area webcams have held off on issuing a dense fog advisory.

No major changes to the convection potential for today. Did speed up timing by an hour per latest hi-res guidance. Convection across upstate NY near Buffalo is being trigger by 500 mb jet. These storms will continue into the morning hours as K values are quite high, and CAPE values are beginning to increase. This convection is just an indicator of the airmass that will be over us by the afternoon. Thus confidence is increase for strong to severe storms this afternoon.

Previous Discussion...

* Severe storms possible this afternoon and evening
* Heat index as high as mid 90s today


Low clouds/fog have moved offshore, even around Cape Cod and islands despite SW flow and lower 70s dewpoints. Appears to be just enough wind and some drying aloft to help scour this out. Patchy fog/low clouds have returned to Nantucket and expect it to develop elsewhere through sunrise.

Once fog/low clouds burn off this morning, attention turns to convective potential this afternoon. Airmass will destabilize rapidly as temperatures soar well into 80s and lower 90s, with dewpoints in mid to upper 60s. Surface-based CAPEs are forecast to reach 1500-2500 j/kg along with good 0-6km shear (30-40kt NW MA to 25-30kt SE) and decent mid level lapse rates near 6C/km.

Global, mesoscale, and high-res models/ensembles are in very good agreement in bringing line of showers/storms through southern New England this afternoon and evening ahead of pre-frontal trough. Timing of onset of storms is around 2 pm in NW MA, Hartford/Worcester/Fitchburg around 4 pm, Boston around 5 pm, Providence and Plymouth around 6 pm, and Cape Cod/Islands closer to 7-8 pm. Main threats are damaging winds from lines or bow segments, urban flooding from heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. Based upon forecast hodographs and low LCLs we cannot rule out an isolated tornado, especially from the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills to the Connecticut River Valley where stronger 0-6km shear will exist as well as low-level backing of wind. A second line of storms may develop later in the day/evening.

We are in agreement with SPC Day 1 outlook which keeps western and north central MA in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms today, with a marginal risk across the rest of the region. It`s possible storms may weaken as they head SE of Providence and Plymouth given low level SW flow.

Heat and humidity will be other issue for today (and hopefully not one that gets lost in the message). Highs will top out in low to mid 90s in the Connecticut Valley as well as near the I-495 belt in eastern MA, and well into 80s elsewhere. Heat indices will be as high as mid 90s in a few locations.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Sat Aug 06, 2016 7:01 am

SATURDAY AUGUST 6, 2016
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM PREDICTIIN CENTER

NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...

EVEN WITH ANTICIPATED SURFACE HEATING OF A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MODELS SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING FRONT...AND WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGHING...MAY BE SOMEWHAT MODEST WITH PEAK MIXED-LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG. STILL...BENEATH 30-50 KT CYCLONIC/WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...THIS PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST A MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BE ONLY MODEST IN STRENGTH AT BEST...WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...WHERE MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY BE AT THE WEAKER END OF THE ABOVE NOTED RANGE OF SPEEDS. INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON OFF THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BEFORE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD...WHILE SCATTERED NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MOST AREAS.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Sat Aug 06, 2016 9:16 am

UPDATE:
SATURDAY 6, 2016 9:00AM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER

Image

NERN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT THIS AFTN WITH OCNL DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE...AND AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IN NRN AREAS. TWO RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED CONCENTRATIONS OF SVR POTENTIAL ARE BECOMING APPARENT ATTM WITHIN BROADER/ISOLATED THREAT...AND THUS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK.

1. SERN NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND -- GREATEST UNCONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR FAVORABLY HEATED/OPTIMALLY MOIST STORM INFLOW...JUXTAPOSED WITH RELATIVELY DENSE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...APPEARS TO BE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND SERN NY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS AREA WILL HAVE LESS CLOUD COVER FOR LONGEST TIME...OFFERING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST AND MOST SUSTAINED SFC INSOLATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS...ALONG WITH SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F...WILL OFFSET MODEST MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO YIELD 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. THIS WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES....IN SUPPORT OF SOMEWHAT GREATER ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL THAN MOST OTHER AREAS OF NERN CONUS.

2. MAINE -- SOMEWHAT MORE CONDITIONAL RISK ALSO EXISTS FOR RELATIVE CONCENTRATION OF SVR POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS ERN MAINE FOR MID/LATE AFTN...WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST. THOUGH THIS WILL BE MORE DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE CLOUD-COVER INFLUENCES...PRIND AREA WILL HAVE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION N OF MOST ADVERSE CLOUD INFLUENCES. THIS WILL OCCUR AMIDST STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES THAN AREAS FARTHER S...THANKS IN PART TO DCVA FROM APCHG ONT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS WELL AS GENERALLY COLDER AMBIENT MIDLEVEL AIR MASS WITH NWD EXTENT. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LESS THAN OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG STILL MAY DEVELOP BENEATH 70-80 KT ANVIL-LEVEL FLOW AND 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDE. ISOLATED SUPERCELL MODES ARE POSSIBLE...LEADING TO AT LEAST MRGL HAIL POTENTIAL IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING-WIND RISK.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Tue Aug 16, 2016 5:36 am

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON MA
431 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY TODAY


NWS STORM OUTLOOK
...
Image

NWS TORNADO OUTLOOK
Image


CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...THERE IS AN INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT WESTERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WELL AS A BRIEF TORNADO.

A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...IF THEY DO DEVELOP THE GREATEST RISKS WILL BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZE FLOODING.

STAY TUNE TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

NORTHEAST...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES/ WILL ADVECT NWD ACROSS NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...AS LOW-LEVEL JET BROADENS E OF A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. AN ATTENDANT SFC WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EWD ACROSS NY INTO FAR SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING...AND QUICKLY ADVANCE NWD INTO NRN NY AND ACROSS VT/NH BY EARLY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE N OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT MODEST HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD STILL OCCUR IN ITS IMMEDIATE WAKE. OTHERWISE...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...AS A LEAD MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MID-AFTERNOON...WHILE PRIMARY VORT MAX WILL LAG WWD ACROSS LAKE HURON INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. THIS SHOULD KEEP STORMS MORE DISCRETE/CELLULAR ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF PA/NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN BROADLY CONFLUENT AHEAD OF A LAGGING SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT.

A TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND SWD NEAR THE HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL/ERN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. HERE...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS AMIDST STRONG/VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF EARLY PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...AND THE SUBSEQUENT STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT CAN OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...DMGG WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAKER...BUT STRONGER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Mon Aug 22, 2016 5:49 pm

Tornado confirmed in Concord in Middlesex County MA...

Location... Concord in Middlesex County MA
date... August 22 2016
estimated time... 320 am EDT to 330 am EDT
maximum ef-scale rating... EF-1
estimated maximum wind speed... 100 mph
maximum path width... 400 yards
path length... 0.5 mile
beginning lat/Lon... 42.54n / 71.34w
ending lat/Lon... 42.46n / 71.33w
* fatalities... 0
* injuries... 0

* the information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event(s) and publication in
NWS storm data.

... Summary...
the National Weather Service in Taunton MA has confirmed a
tornado in Concord in Middlesex County MA On August 22 2016.

The tornado was embedded within an area of straight-line wind damage.
It touched down near the Cambridge Turnpike around 320 am EDT before
heading toward the northeast. While there was some damage on the
Cambridge Turnpike most of the damage was concentrated beginning
near the intersection of Lexington Road and alcott Road to the
neighborhood of alcott and Independence roads where trees were
uprooted or had the tops sheared off at the top. It was evident
that trees were blown down in opposite directions. In all,
approximately 39 houses were damaged to some degree. Only one house
had significant structural damage.

Damage was more spotty in nature farther northeast where it is suspected
the tornado lifted after about 10 minutes.

It is possible that many of the trees were uprooted due to the ongoing
drought conditions, which resulted in weakened root systems.

Based upon the damage observed, the tornado has been rated EF-1 on
the Enhanced Fujita scale with maximum winds around 100 mph. The
path length was one half mile long and 400 yards wide.

Just to the east of the tornado path was an approximately a 200 yard
wide path of straight line wind damage extending from Lexington Road
west of Hawthorne to Edmonds Road.

This information can also be found on our website at
weather.Gov/box.

For reference... the Enhanced Fujita scale classifies tornadoes
into the following categories:

EF0... wind speeds 65 to 85 mph.
EF1... wind speeds 86 to 110 mph.
EF2... wind speeds 111 to 135 mph.
EF3... wind speeds 136 to 165 mph.
EF4... wind speeds 166 to 200 mph.
EF5... wind speeds greater than 200 mph.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Thu Aug 25, 2016 7:12 am

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
441 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK EAST AT 25 MPH AND CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Thu Oct 20, 2016 7:20 am

FXUS61 KBOX 200758
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
358 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Cold front stalls south of the region today then moves back north as a warm front later tonight. A few showers or drizzle is possible late today and tonight, then a more widespread heavier rainfall is likely sometime Friday into early Saturday as low pressure tracks across the region. Cooler and mainly dry weather will follow Sunday into early next week.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure moves east from northern New England today with sunshine giving way to increasing clouds from west to east as column moisture increases. As a frontal wave lifts NE along the spine of the Appalachians a 40-50 kt low level jet will become focused across central and northern NY this afternoon. The leading edge of the jet approaches from the west late today which will
bring a chance of a few showers across mainly western New Eng as weak ascent develops north of the stalled boundary, but best forcing and deep moisture axis remains well to the west where main focus for heavier rain will be.

Much cooler today with easterly flow but temps still above normal with highs reaching mid/upper 60s south of the pike, cooler to the north and along the east coast.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Tonight...
As mid level trof amplifies to the west, some mid level drying will lift north into SNE during the night. Low level jet and best moisture transport remains focused to the north and west where best chance of steadier/heavier rain. However, moisture is abundant below 850 mb with shallow lift likely leading to areas of drizzle or light rain, and fog will likely become widespread and locally dense as warm front lifts north into SNE with increasing
dewpoints. Expect rising temps into the 60s overnight south of Mass pike with temps closer to 50 near NH border.

Friday...
High amplitude trof moves east into the Great Lakes with deep southerly flow developing from the surface through the mid levels. Interesting set up developing with one area of heavy rainfall to the west across New York assocd with right entrance region of strong upper jet and strong frontogenesis along the mid level front. Meanwhile, models indicate low pres lifting north toward
SNE with area of enhanced low level convergence and some interaction with tropical moisture and elevated instability. This will lead to more widespread rainfall and possible isold thunder but there is low confidence on where the axis of potential heavy rainfall will set up. It may be across SNE but it could also end up to the east. This is something that will need to be evaluated
further with later forecasts.

SNE will be in the warm sector Fri with temps reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s and quite humid with dewpoints climbing well into the 60s.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights...

* Rainy and unsettled Friday night into early Saturday.
* Cooler and dry by Saturday night.
* Seasonable early next week.


Overview and model preferences... With new 00Z update, noting the good agreement at the synoptic scale continues. However, it is the lower level interactions that continue to show a lot of spread, and this includes both ensembles and operational models. At odds is the
interaction with weak tropical disturbance and attendant moisture which will be captured early enough for cyclogenesis to occur over or near S New England (ECMWF/CMC, several ensemble members) or
offshore (GFS, several other ensemble members). This will ultimately dictate how much rain falls Fri night, and how long the wet wx lingers into Sat. Looking at soundings, noting a fair amount of moisture trapped in the lower lvls even as drier air builds over through the day on Sat. Given this fact, and that ECMWF has been a
bit more persistent, will add a bit more weight towards it`s solution with this update.

Details...

Sat night and Sat... Strong cyclogenesis S or SE of S New England will gradually shift to the NNE as it continues to strengthen and becomes captured by the upper lvl cutoff. With this update, suggest some mod-heavy rainfall during the overnight hours as increased low-
lvl convergence and cyclogenesis occurs over portions of S New England. PWAT plume is highest offshore, but noting enough moisture (PWATS near 1.5 inches, 2 std deviations above normal). QPF probabilities are near 70 percent for values of 0.5-1.0 inches. Therefore, would not be surprised to see some areas receive nearly 1.00 inches during the overnight hours and into early Sat in the Comma-head precip as low pres shifts into N New England. Still some question on exactly where the peak precip will occur, primarily due to the models continuing to struggle with the tropical interaction.
Stay tuned for updates as we approach and better refine the axis of highest precip. Timing wise, will allow pops to linger into mid day on Saturday, slower than previous forecasts.

Temps remain near to above normal thanks to H85 not remaining above +6C until Sat afternoon. Looking at highs in the upper 60s, with lows only falling into the low 60s. Also, strong NW flow especially if mixing increases with some sunshine late Sat. 30-40 mph gusts possible, with a low risk for some wind advisories.

Sat night through Sun... Strong NW flow continues with drier air moving in aloft first. Therefore, it may take some time for all low clouds to clear out Sun night. Otherwise, cold advection allows H85 temps to drop below 0C while H92 temps fall to near +4C. Highs Sun
should remain in the 50s, while lows drop into the 30s. Save for a low-lvl instability induced sprinkle, conditions remain mostly dry.

Mon... Reinforcing shortwave quickly rushes through the region with some moisture and weak insatiability below H7. This should be enough
for some quick shra across the area. These should end with the evening hours and loss of any diabatic support. Otherwise, winds shift from W, to more N-NE by the overnight hours as the isallobaric couplet shifts. Increased risk for ocean effect clouds/rainfall with this trajectory for the Cape, lower Plymouth county as SSTs remain near +15C and H85 temps drop to -7C. Highs in the 50s, but lows may actually dip into the low-mid 30s, cooler than the weekend.

Tue into Thu... The strong trof settling in Atlantic Canada will
lead to building ridge upstream and allow for high pres to build
across the region. H85 temps drop to about -5C at its lowest while
H92 temps drop near 0C. Therefore, looking at a seasonably cool
period with this high pres. Overnight mins especially could be
chilly with radiational cooling.

&&
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Tue Nov 15, 2016 8:01 am

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
421 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2016


AFFECTING MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

...BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED URBAN STREET FLOODING AND IMPACT PART OF
THE EVENING RUSH HOUR...

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 6 AND 10 AM THIS MORNING. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY
PICKUP AN INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR, RESULTING IN LOCALIZED URBAN STREET FLOODING WHICH MAY IMPACT THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATIONS AND NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

$$
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Wed Nov 23, 2016 8:54 am

AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
409 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2016

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
* Light mixed precip event begins early tomorrow morning.
* Some ice...but mainly snow mixing together through the morning.
* Best chance for mixed precip is north of the Mass Pike, Berkshires, Litchfield Hills, within the Connecticut River Valley, and points North of the Massachusetts border, early, with rain mixing in during most of the day, and a likely changeover back late in the evening.

Overnight into Thanksgiving...
Very weak warm frontal scenario moving east out of the OH valley and Great Lakes will yield some very light overrunning upward motion toward the daybreak hours on Thu. Much of the night is dry, with building high-mid clouds as the column moisture loads from the top down. This, combined with a weak pres gradient should allow for some chilly conditions with mins still dropping into the mid- upper 20s and low 30s before the clouds mitigate any further radiational cooling.

Initial precip along the nose of the overruning will be very light as the sfc-H8 layer looks to remain dry and even as the column continues to moisten through daybreak, and the omega is so weak. It is likely to start as freezing drizzle before changing over to a very light snow. It should remain snow initially into mid morning thanks to Tw temps remaining at or below freezing especially N of the Mass Pike and within typical N-S valleys due to northerly component to low- lvl ageostrophic flow. Otherwise, gradual shift to light rain/drizzle as the BL warms can be expected from S-N through the day.

All in all, this mixed precip event could yield some pockets of light icing (with any freezing drizzle) with light snowfall accums especially where it remains light SN the longest. This could yield some spots of hazardous driving conditions where roads are untreated for some especially during the morning. A brief lull occurs during the afternoon thanks to meso-ridging. QPF values suggest any ice is holds around a T, especially since sfcs will be near freezing (rather than well below). Snow amounts of an inch or less widespread are expected although a few spots of the higher terrain in NW MA may sneak above an inch through the overnight hours, with higher amounts possible in VT, NH, and Maine. Snowfall/icing rates are very light through the whole period.

In essence, something to watch with the benefit of one more round of new data, given the expected travel.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* Areas of freezing drizzle possible late Thursday night
* Dreary Friday and generally wet Friday night through at least Saturday
* Drying out Sunday
* Becoming milder early next week

Overview... Medium range models continue to be in fairly good agreement with the large scale features through the period. Low level moisture remains trapped Thursday night into Friday. A moderately amplified upper trough and associated surface low formation east of New England will bring chance of more significant precipitation to at least northeast MA, Eastern NH, and Maine Friday night into Saturday night. Large scale upper air pattern amplifies next week with a central USA upper trough. This should bring milder temperatures to southern New England for the start of next week.

Details...
Thursday night and Friday...Looks like low level moisture will remain trapped. Have lowered POPs from the model guidance but still showing chance POPs. Have indicated chance rain or drizzle but am thinking the moisture is relatively shallow so drizzle is more likely than rain. There may be a risk of a period of freezing drizzle across the east slopes of the Litchfield Hills, Berkshires, Central MA, Southern VT, & Southern New Hampshire, and Snow further North late Thursday night and early Friday morning. Anticipate areas of fog given saturation of low levels and light winds for this period.

Friday night, Saturday, and Saturday night...Confidence remains relatively low on details for this period. Surface low center consolidates somewhere in vicinity of northern Georges Bank or Southern Gulf of Maine. Although the GFS looks to be overdone, both the GFS and ECMWF at least hint at highest rain chances and QPF over northeast MA with some wraparound moisture. Uncertainty remains on timing details. Model blend seemed to focus on Friday night whereas 00Z operational GFS and ECMWF times the most significant rainfall toward Saturday night. Have stretched out the chances of rain from Friday night into to Saturday night given the uncertainty. Ptype looks to be primarily liquid, although wet snow may mix with any rain over the Litchfield Hills, Berkshires, Northern-Central New England, and possibly over northeast MA Saturday night if the precipitation lingers long enough. Colder air eventually gets drawn south into southern New England during Saturday night. For now, wintry to rain mix, but this could change if a deeper surface low develops closer to the coast and sets the stage for colder air to work in when precipitation still falling.

Sunday...Should dry out but may have considerable clouds persisting northern and eastern sections under cyclonic flow aloft. Temperatures look to be on the cool side but not overly so for this time of year with highs generally in the 40s.

Monday and Tuesday...Amplifying Central USA trough has been advertised by all medium range models for a few runs. This should result in building heights and milder temperatures across Southern New England. Overrunning moisture will likely bring rain showers to the area Tuesday afternoon and/or evening.
_______________________________________________________
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Mon Dec 05, 2016 12:50 am

1057 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2016

...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...

SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS CONNECTICUT...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM...THEN OVERSPREADING RHODE
ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS 7 AM TO 8 AM. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY FROM HARTFORD COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE GREATER SPRINGFIELD AREA. IN THIS
REGION SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY OF UP TO 3 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

ELSEWHERE A COATING TO AN INCH IS LIKELY BEFORE POTENTIALLY
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO RAIN ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS BEFORE CONCLUDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

ANTICIPATE IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE ESPECIALLY FROM HARTFORD
TO SPRINGFIELD. PLEASE BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH SNOW. FARTHER EAST INTO RHODE ISLAND AND
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS SNOW INTENSITY WILL BE LIGHTER ALONG WITH
LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Mon Dec 12, 2016 12:21 am

Image
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 2 to 5 Inches of Snow with some Sleet mix/Freezing Rain possible in S. New England later in Day
WINTER STORM WARNING6 to 10 Inches of Snow expected
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
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All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:58 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1010 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Developing low pressure southeast of the 40N/70W benchmark this morning will move rapidly out to sea this afternoon. This will result in a dry seasonably cool day across southern New England, with some snow showers in northern New England.
A cold front moves across the area Thu morning accompanied by scattered snow showers and colder temperatures. However a powerful arctic front barrels through the region Thu evening and overnight with dangerously temperatures...wind chills and the potential for damaging winds Thursday night into Fri morning. A wintry mix early Saturday transitions to rain for much of New England for the remainder of the weekend. Turning dry and more seasonable early next week.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 am update...

Short wave from last night along with its attending cloud and rain shield is now moving offshore. In it`s wake modest CAA beginning to overspread the area on WNW winds 10 to 20 mph. 12z observed ALY sounding indicates a deep blyr with mixing up to 800 mb. Despite
increasing CAA this well mixed boundary layer will allow temps this afternoon to rise a few more degs from their 10 am values into the upper 30s and low 40s...seasonably cold. Previous forecast captures these details so no major changes with this update. Earlier discussion below.

===================================================================

Upper flow is zonal by character, but with a closed low from the Hudson Bay Region of Canada pushing south and creating cyclonic curvature over the Great Lakes and Northeast the result is several shortwaves moving through the flow while very cold air sinks into our area.

One shortwave moves through New England this morning. The models show a 160 knot jet moving through the flow and across the South Coast region with the left exit region moving through during this morning. This may maintain limited support for rain/snow showers along the South Coast first thing this morning, but then quickly shifts offshore. This jet will drive the cold front through during yhe morning with drier air and clearing skies arriving behind the front.

Mixing should reach to between 900 and 925 mb today, with temps at those levels supporting max sfc temps 35 to 45. With temperatures starting the morning 30-35, we should favor the higher part of the proposed range. Winds in the mixed layer are forecast around 15 knots but may be a little higher so we will forecast a few gusts near 20 knots.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Tonight...

Low pressure in Quebec sweeps an arctic cold front through theregion late tonight. This will bring increasing clouds and increasing low level lapse rates...but limited moisture. So while there may be a few snow showers around during the Wednesday overnight, it does not look widespread. However, as the previous shift noted, a quick coating of snow in an overnight squall could make the Thursday morning commute painful for some. Increasing west-southwest winds -8C air moving over 8-10C sea water could also generate ocean snow bands along the South Coast and Islands.

The cold core is only starting to move in toward morning, so we stayed close to model values in the upper teens and 20s.

Thursday...

Upper flow tries to turn move W-NW behind the arctic front. This brings initial cold advection overhead and supports mixing through at least 700 mb, possibly to 600 mb. Temps at that level would support max temps in the 20s, cooler in the higher elevations and typically colder areas of western and north-central New England. This is close to the morning low, so expect max temps in the morning hours, with steadily falling temps in the afternoon. Mixing will also bring strong wind gusts from well up in the atmosphere. This will need to be monitored for a possible wind advisory.

Finally, the air-ocean differential may be close to 30C in places. This suggest ocean-effect snow showers developing off the coast. A WNW or NW wind would suggest mainly offshore. This wind direction will need to be monitored.

.LONGTERM THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
- Dangerously cold Thursday night into Friday morning
- Strong to damaging winds Thursday night into early Friday
- Wintry weather forecast Saturday
- A milder trend going into next week
*/ Overview...


Main weather signal is the negative to positive phase shift of both the EPO / WPO . Initially negative, parent to the La Nina and -PNA, higher heights over the NE Pacific / AK yielding deep troughing over the heart of the CONUS introduces cross-polar flow ushering shots of Arctic air S out of Canada into the N/NE CONUS. This is what gets us the dangerously cold conditions Thursday night into Friday. But with the shift towards +WPO / +EPO, H5 flow becomes less amplified, more zonal. Westerlies increase off the Pacific that usher milder air and yield a general mid to upper level height rises across the CONUS. A warmer pattern as colder, Arctic air is locked up across N Canada into next week. Corroborating signals per forecast NAO/AO becoming largely positive. Less intrusion of colder air and absence of a down-
stream block, all signs point to a progressive pattern across the NE CONUS, again milder as well with a storm track more or less across the Great Lakes region (inside-runners). Any wintry outcomes mainly associated with over-running before changing over to all rain. Will highlight the details in the discussion below.

*/ Daily Discussion...
Thursday night through Friday...
DANGEROUSLY COLD Thursday night into Friday morning. Cross-polar flow pushes H85
temperatures to around -20 to -25C Friday morning as a polar low digs across SE Canada, very cold air we have not seen the likes of since Valentine`s Day earlier this year. Good agreement among all guidance, probabilistics and analogs of lows in the single digits to a few degrees below-zero. Toss in the anticipated blustery NW winds
and wind chills of -10 to -20 below are forecast. At a minimum, wind chill advisory headlines will be needed across interior New England, with the possibility of Wind Chill Warnings for the high terrain of the Berkshires, along with portions of Central and Northern New England.

Strong cold air advection will undoubtedly mix out to around H7 / 10 kft, to the top of the tropopause where
winds are forecast to be within Category 1 Hurricane Force (74-95 mph). This the result of the isallobaric wind which is proportional to the gradient of pressure change, a gradient which will be its strongest around midnight Friday throughout the mixed layer up to 10 kft in response to the rapid pressure increase behind the bombing low over the Gulf of St. Lawrence (interrogate H85-7 12-hour height changes especially
as well as 3- and 6-hour surface pressure rises). The rapid pressure increase into our area, a sign of strong winds, there`s a fair amount of probabilistic guidance along with BUFKIT profiles to suggest that at least across the high terrain and along the coast would reach wind advisory criteria. Just based on the consensus of
forecast guidance, will forecast 30 to 40 mph gusts with the likelihood of 35 to 45 mph gusts along the immediate shore, potentially as high as 50 to 55 mph across the Cape and Islands. Sustained winds of up to 25 to 35 mph especially for those areas highlighted of seeing strongest gusts. Growing confidence of wind advisory headlines with possible high wind warnings. Am greatly concerned for inflatable holiday lawn ornaments.

As to snow squalls, using the associated parameter, looking at the possibility of activity Wednesday night into Thursday given higher moisture content around H925 within the steep, unstable profile with increasing 0-2 km winds as the crux of the mid-level vortex energy associated with the polar low sweeps across the NE CONUS along with cold air advection. A lack of sufficient moisture below H925, have higher confidence of outcomes over high terrain and across warmer ocean waters. With any squall activity, undoubtedly convective,
anticipate impacts of reduced visibilities, down to near white-out, with modest snow accumulations. A first-guess, signals are somewhat weak across the interior but more robust over the ocean, potentially across the Cape and Islands given the greater abundance of low-level moisture. Will have to monitor these areas closely into Thursday morning. May see another round late Thursday into Thursday night with the last of the polar low energy and some localized higher H925 theta-E spinning across the region.

Friday night through Sunday...

Initial snows transitioning to rain. Open wave disturbance, early on will see the bulk of forcing through the low-mid levels associated with isentropic over-running ahead of a warm frontal boundary. Along
with frontogenetical forcing and moist convergence, some mid-upper level support via lead vortmax energy and jet dynamics, anticipate a good forward thump of outcomes with maritime-tropical fetch (pwats
to an inch) over lingering low-level Arctic air possibly maintained by NE ageostrophic flow. Wet-bulb considerations during top-down moistening along with snow to liquid ratios as noted by the prior forecaster, expect snow to gradually change to rain with the non-
diurnal trend as low-levels warm with winds turning S. This as low pressure emerges out of the Plains tracking N/E as an inside runner across the E Great Lakes region, noting the lack of Canadian high pressure to the N. Will see a second thump of mainly wet-weather during the day Sunday along a sweeping cold front (a lull possible
in-between for Saturday night).

The surface low will track down the Saint Lawrence Saturday night/early sunday with warm front hanging up across Northern New Hampshire into central Maine with trailing cold front sweeping across the area Sunday
afternoon. Snow to a wintry mix is likely with only southern New Hampshire and points south, extending up into adjacent southern Maine coastal areas likely to warm sufficiently to see a changeover to plain rain Saturday night into Sunday before colder air floods in behind the cold front. We`re left with a deep trough over much of the CONUS behind this system with arctic high pressure and much below normal temperatures to
begin the new work week. Growing confidence of advisory level snows of at or greater than 3 inches for areas of North and Western CT, Western and Central MA, most/all of VT, most of NH, and the Northern 2/3rds of Maine...and possibly even NW RI. But a note of caution as ensemble members still exhibit spread in possible
solutions ranging from sub-advisory to warning level for particular points. While there is growing confidence it is not to say that it is absolutely expected. There is a level of uncertainty. Also still some concern of a brief period of a wintry mix in the form of sleet / freezing rain over interior valleys and transition to rain over the coastal plain up into Maine. Some indication of over-riding warmer air over trapped shallow cold air. Uncertainty as to the morphology of the expected warm front to lift across the region over time Saturday into Saturday night. Forecast is still several days out. Should iron out the details with time.

Next week...

Going with ensemble means, expect high pressure with more seasonable conditions given lesser intrusion of Arctic air, dampened by the phase shift to +EPO / +WPO. Anticipate with the N/NW wind pattern of scattered to broken clouds either off the Great Lakes and/or ocean-
induced. Magnitude of the cold being less, not expecting much in the way of snow shower activity, thinking the forecast period will be dry given the near 1040 high over the SE CONUS. Could however see an inside-runner storm system for the late week period. Initial wintry
weather precipitation types with leading over-running setup followed by the introduction of warmer air from the S and subsequent transition to rain.

And a Possible Storm for Christmas Weekend? :xmas: :xmas: :xmas:
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
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Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:54 am

Image
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Storm Warning
Freezing Rain Advisory
Freezing Rain Warning
Wind Chill Advisory
Wind Chill Warning
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
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Posts: 11650
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2007 5:56 pm
Location: Westfield, Ma

1984 Pontiac Trans Am
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Engine: L69
Transmission: T-5
Antispam: NO
Production Year: 1984

Re: NWS Radar & Severe Weather Statements

Postby Brother Al » Fri Dec 16, 2016 12:15 pm

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A mainly clear and chilly start to the night under cresting high pressure. The high will quickly retreat offshore tonight in fast flow aloft. Warm air advection clouds will spread rapidly northeast into the area after midnight with snow breaking out in the predawn hours over much of Southern New England, Vermont, New Hampshire, and adjacent southwest Maine. Snow will overspread the remainder of Maine Saturday morning. Of note...models have trended colder and cold air damming and snowpack should keep the initial warm air advection precipitation frozen with some light freezing rain or drizzle for late Saturday into Saturday night as heavier precipitation ends. Freezing Rain Advisories may be likely for some areas, but otherwise this looks like a general 3 to 6 inch snow and sleet event for Saturday, followed by some light freezing precipitation for Saturday night. The exception will be the Mountains and near the international border, where some additional light snow and sleet accumulations are possible Saturday night. Have issued winter weather advisory for the entire forecast area starting Saturday through early Sunday. Surface temperatures will gradually rise above freezing along the immediate coast Saturday night...but the interior will likely spend the balance of the might at or
below freezing as we await the approach of the cold/occluded surface front Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models indicating a warming trend next week with little in the way of precipitation until Thursday or Friday.

For Sunday most locations except the foothills and mountain valleys should be above freezing. There could still be some freezing precipitation in these areas during the morning hours. Temperatures will rise above freezing in the mountains for a time Sunday before falling after the cold front passes in the afternoon.

skies will clear Sunday night with cold air moving back in.
Temperatures will fall to near zero north to mid teens south.

for Monday through early Thursday models agree on keeping weak systems moving across southern Canada. Late in the week the GFS and ECMWF diverge with the GFS showing a digging trough which develops a surface low along a cold front and moves this system northeast along the Maine coast. This produces a good soaking
rain. The ECMWF on the other hand shows this trough shearing out to the east with little development and cold enough for some light snow.
_______________________________________________________
"Corp America Got Bailed Out, WE Got Sold Out"
--------------------------------------------------
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
User avatar
Brother Al
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Posts: 11650
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